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Rollout and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 4 November 2017, at 4:25 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Neil Robins)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
Unlimited Game
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B--DbBA---D--acde----B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Original position

1.Rollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.603
Player:
Opponent:		33.82% (G:8.10% B:0.28%)
66.18% (G:17.03% B:1.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.611...-0.594) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 48 seconds
2.Rollout113/11 9/5eq: -0.625 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		33.44% (G:8.06% B:0.29%)
66.56% (G:17.10% B:1.15%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.634...-0.616) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 56 seconds
3.Rollout19/5 6/4eq: -0.625 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		33.20% (G:8.15% B:0.29%)
66.80% (G:16.51% B:1.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.634...-0.616) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 33 seconds
4.Rollout113/9 6/4eq: -0.634 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		33.23% (G:7.74% B:0.27%)
66.77% (G:16.93% B:1.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.643...-0.625) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 51 seconds
5.Rollout124/22 13/9eq: -0.670 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:		34.51% (G:6.84% B:0.27%)
65.49% (G:21.18% B:0.64%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.678...-0.662) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 04 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71284
First 2 moves: XG Roller+, cube decisions: 2-ply
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Neil Robin's rollout of his original position appears above. It is worthy of note that XGR++ claims that Z (reverse split, 24/22 13/9) is the best play, but the rollout shows it to be a blunder (–.068).

On the other hand, if we make the seemingly non-consequential change of moving a White 7pt spare back to the 8pt, Z soars to the top:






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B--DbBA---D--adce----B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 1 (A White 7pt spare is back on her 8pt)


1.Rollout124/22 13/9eq: -0.625
Player:
Opponent:		35.23% (G:7.15% B:0.28%)
64.77% (G:21.16% B:0.70%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.633...-0.616) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.662 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		33.48% (G:7.80% B:0.25%)
66.52% (G:17.00% B:1.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.669...-0.656) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 10 seconds
3.Rollout19/5 6/4eq: -0.674 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		33.13% (G:7.86% B:0.26%)
66.87% (G:16.43% B:0.92%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.681...-0.666) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 05 seconds
4.Rollout113/11 9/5eq: -0.681 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:		33.31% (G:7.60% B:0.25%)
66.69% (G:17.43% B:1.04%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.688...-0.674) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 10 seconds
5.Rollout113/9 6/4eq: -0.685 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:		33.09% (G:7.39% B:0.27%)
66.91% (G:16.86% B:0.89%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.692...-0.678) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 06 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13417452
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Let's return that 8pt spare to the 7pt, and make a different change, which is nudging Blue's 24pt anchor to the 23pt. Now a third play wins:






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B--DbBA---D--acde---B--:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 2 (Blue's 24pt anchor is promoted to his 23pt)


1.Rollout19/5 6/4eq: -0.532
Player:
Opponent:		35.79% (G:8.22% B:0.29%)
64.21% (G:12.37% B:0.51%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.539...-0.525) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.550 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		35.45% (G:7.91% B:0.23%)
64.55% (G:12.31% B:0.53%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.556...-0.543) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout113/9 6/4eq: -0.559 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		35.08% (G:7.71% B:0.25%)
64.92% (G:12.24% B:0.51%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.566...-0.552) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 23 seconds
4.Rollout213/11 9/5eq: -0.572 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		35.02% (G:7.74% B:0.25%)
64.98% (G:12.94% B:0.55%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.579...-0.565) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 19 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13417452
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13417452
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Let's return Blue's anchor to the 24pt. If instead the only change we make from the original position is lifting White's 9pt spare to her 6pt (see rollout below), a fourth different play finds its way to the top, and a fifth different play is in second place (though in truth it's a four-way tie):

Plays not shown: D (Down, 13/11 13/9) is –.037, and Z (reverse split, 24/22 13/9) is –.084.

Nack






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B--DbBA---D---cdf----B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 3 (White's 9pt blot is lifted to her 6pt)


1.Rollout113/9 6/4eq: -0.424
Player:
Opponent:		39.08% (G:10.03% B:0.34%)
60.92% (G:14.91% B:0.87%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.427...-0.420) - [63.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 9/5eq: -0.425 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		39.38% (G:10.20% B:0.34%)
60.62% (G:15.92% B:1.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.429...-0.421) - [27.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
3.Rollout19/5 6/4eq: -0.426 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		39.00% (G:10.48% B:0.37%)
61.00% (G:15.01% B:0.86%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.430...-0.423) - [8.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
4.Rollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.430 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		39.39% (G:9.92% B:0.34%)
60.61% (G:15.95% B:1.15%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.434...-0.426) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13417452
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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