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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 29 January 2007, at 5:55 p.m.

In Response To: Weaver to play 3-1 from the bar (Stick)

Paul played bar/24*/21 here without much thought and who can blame him, I'm sure almost everyone here would have done the same. One of the things I try to remind myself during games/matches now is "Once you find the best hitting play discard it temporarily from your mind, now find the best non hitting play and compare". It's a natural tendancy to want to whack things, it's usually good, but I often find it's usually wrong too lol. Here, btw, I wouldn't even seriously consider the double hit. The bar is too valuable to give up and it leaves me hurting if my opponent does hit with a 4, and scrambling if he doesn't hit but simply enters both.


Match to 11, Blue leads 3 to 0
167
149
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/22 6/5 0.333
2.0% 19.9% 59.1% 40.9% 12.1% 0.3%
Live cube rollout: 0.387
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.277 ±0.021, - live cube: 0.387 ±0.040. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 16098 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
* 2 R bar/24*/21 0.235 (-0.099)
1.7% 21.3% 54.9% 45.1% 11.3% 0.6%
Live cube rollout: 0.273
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.209 ±0.023, - live cube: 0.273 ±0.049. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 13695 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.

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