The correct play wasn't even on my radar.
          
 
      
 | | White is Player 2
score: 6
pip: 59 | | 13 point match | pip: 97
score: 3
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBBBBB--------b--BAbcccb-:2:1:1:65:3:6:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/7 | eq: -0,510 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 20,78% (G:0,93% B:0,03%)
79,22% (G:9,99% B:0,18%) | Conf.: ± 0,001 (-0,512...-0,509) - [100,0%]
Duration: 46,0 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 19/8 | eq: -0,545 (-0,034) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 19,70% (G:0,58% B:0,01%)
80,30% (G:0,80% B:0,00%) | Conf.: ± 0,002 (-0,547...-0,543) - [0,0%]
Duration: 46,1 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 18/13 18/12 | eq: -0,573 (-0,063) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 19,79% (G:0,43% B:0,01%)
80,21% (G:3,82% B:0,02%) | Conf.: ± 0,002 (-0,575...-0,572) - [0,0%]
Duration: 48,2 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Understanding match equities at lopsided scores, especially at high cube values is quite important. I was underestimating this for a long time (as well as DMP). This mistake above is not just a minor 0.034 error, it's a 0.75% MWC one - almost as high as in DMP.
Like you said, the recube value is enormous AtS:
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 6
pip: 51 | | 13 point match | pip: 86
score: 3
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBBBBBA---------aAAbdccb-:2:1:1:00:3:6:0:13:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 55,30% (G:1,58% B:0,02%) | 55,60% (G:1,24% B:0,02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 44,70% (G:0,01% B:0,00%) | 44,40% (G:0,66% B:0,00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,127 | +0,574 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0,164 (-0,410) | ±0,001 (+0,163..+0,165) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,574 | ±0,002 (+0,572..+0,575) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,426) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Duration: 9,9 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Yes, it's already correct to double even after a 64:
| | White is Player 2
score: 6
pip: 49 | | 13 point match | pip: 92
score: 3
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBBBBBA----------AabdccbA:2:1:1:00:3:6:0:13:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 31,23% (G:0,88% B:0,02%) | 31,27% (G:0,68% B:0,02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 68,77% (G:10,29% B:0,02%) | 68,73% (G:13,50% B:0,01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0,425 | -0,377 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | -0,403 (-0,027) | ±0,001 (-0,405..-0,402) |
| Redouble/Take: | -0,377 | ±0,002 (-0,378..-0,375) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+1,377) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Duration: 25,3 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
At -5/-13 it would be a pass after 62 and a giant double after 64.
Also, for reference, a variant of original position for money:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 59 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 97
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBBBBB--------b--BAbcccb-:2:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 19/8 | eq: -0,584 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 19,74% (G:0,56% B:0,01%)
80,26% (G:0,25% B:0,00%) | Conf.: ± 0,002 (-0,585...-0,582) - [100,0%]
Duration: 37,7 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/13 18/12 | eq: -0,623 (-0,040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 19,84% (G:0,51% B:0,01%)
80,16% (G:3,93% B:0,01%) | Conf.: ± 0,001 (-0,624...-0,622) - [0,0%]
Duration: 36,8 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 18/7 | eq: -0,650 (-0,066) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 21,04% (G:0,95% B:0,02%)
78,96% (G:10,24% B:0,10%) | Conf.: ± 0,001 (-0,651...-0,648) - [0,0%]
Duration: 31,6 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10