| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/7 | eq: -0,510 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 20,78% (G:0,93% B:0,03%)
79,22% (G:9,99% B:0,18%) | Conf.: ± 0,001 (-0,512...-0,509) - [100,0%]
Duration: 46,0 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 19/8 | eq: -0,545 (-0,034) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 19,70% (G:0,58% B:0,01%)
80,30% (G:0,80% B:0,00%) | Conf.: ± 0,002 (-0,547...-0,543) - [0,0%]
Duration: 46,1 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 18/13 18/12 | eq: -0,573 (-0,063) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 19,79% (G:0,43% B:0,01%)
80,21% (G:3,82% B:0,02%) | Conf.: ± 0,002 (-0,575...-0,572) - [0,0%]
Duration: 48,2 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Above is Karol's rollout of his original position. 18/7 is a great play AtS.
However, support for this brilliant coup depends on Blue's perfect board. If Blue's ace point is unmade, breaking the 18pt relatively degrades, for example to a toss-up in Variant 1 below:
| 1. | Rollout1 | 19/13 11/6 | eq: -0.605 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 17.19% (G:0.67% B:0.02%)
82.81% (G:1.27% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.606...-0.604) - [68.8%]
Duration: 2 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 19/8 | eq: -0.605 (0.000) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 17.18% (G:0.64% B:0.02%)
82.82% (G:1.20% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.606...-0.604) - [30.9%]
Duration: 2 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 19/14 11/5 | eq: -0.606 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 16.85% (G:0.62% B:0.01%)
83.15% (G:1.36% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.607...-0.606) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 18/7 | eq: -0.607 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 18.70% (G:0.84% B:0.02%)
81.30% (G:16.48% B:0.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.607...-0.606) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94307656
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Or remove Blue's 2pt (instead of his 1pt) and the best 18pt-breaking play drops to –.047, as shown in Variant 2 below.
(If you improve Blue by moving the 11pt checker optimally to his 6pt, the error of breaking the 18pt narrows to –.026, according to a 5k rollout not shown.)
Nack
| 1. | Rollout1 | 19/13 11/6 | eq: -0.609 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 16.22% (G:0.52% B:0.01%)
83.78% (G:1.20% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.610...-0.608) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 51 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 19/14 11/5 | eq: -0.613 (-0.003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 15.78% (G:0.49% B:0.01%)
84.22% (G:1.37% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.614...-0.611) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 19/8 | eq: -0.614 (-0.005) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 16.19% (G:0.54% B:0.01%)
83.81% (G:1.31% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.615...-0.613) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 46 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 18/12 11/6 | eq: -0.656 (-0.047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 16.67% (G:0.61% B:0.01%)
83.33% (G:15.79% B:0.15%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.658...-0.653) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38.9 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 18/13 18/12 | eq: -0.658 (-0.049) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 15.54% (G:0.41% B:0.01%)
84.46% (G:7.96% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.659...-0.657) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.3 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout2 | 18/13 11/5 | eq: -0.674 (-0.065) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 16.39% (G:0.65% B:0.02%)
83.61% (G:17.87% B:0.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.676...-0.671) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39.8 seconds |
|
| 7. | Rollout2 | 18/7 | eq: -0.674 (-0.065) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 16.30% (G:0.59% B:0.01%)
83.70% (G:16.79% B:0.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.677...-0.672) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41.7 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13417452
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13417452
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
