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Rip or Clear - Rollout and VARIANT

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 5 November 2017, at 1:41 p.m.

In Response To: Rip or Clear - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 10 pip: 183 11 point match Crawford pip: 25 score: 8 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bCCbB--b-a-a------bc--b--:0:0:1:32:8:10:1:11:10
Blue to play 32

1.	Rollout1	5/3 5/2	eq: +1.133
	Player: Opponent: 98.39% (G:96.62% B:5.77%) 1.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.128...+1.139) - [100.0%] Duration: 12.5 seconds
2.	Rollout1	3/Off 2/Off	eq: +1.067 (-0.066)
	Player: Opponent: 87.88% (G:79.46% B:13.19%) 12.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+1.056...+1.078) - [0.0%] Duration: 48.0 seconds
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 54142150 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Stick's rollout of his original position appears above. I suspect that on a higher-ply rollout, the rip play would be demonstrated to be an even bigger blunder.

In the cusp variant below, the three checkers on White's 5pt have been moved to her 1pt. In this case, as White loses most of her priming opportunity, I'll assume the 4-ply rollout setting I used is high enough to be reasonably trustworthy. (Besides, who doesn't love a dead heat?)

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 10 pip: 171 11 point match Crawford pip: 25 score: 8 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bCCbB--b-a-a------b---bc-:0:0:1:32:8:10:1:11:10
Blue to play 32

1.	Rollout1	3/Off 2/Off	eq: +1.146
	Player: Opponent: 93.18% (G:87.09% B:11.67%) 6.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.143...+1.148) - [58.7%] Duration: 38 minutes 18 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/3 5/2	eq: +1.145 (0.000)
	Player: Opponent: 99.03% (G:97.63% B:5.70%) 0.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.144...+1.147) - [41.3%] Duration: 8 minutes 35 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 94307656 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Rip or Clear
  Stick -- Friday, 3 November 2017, at 4:50 p.m.
  • Rip or Clear
    Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 3 November 2017, at 5:06 p.m.
  • Rip or Clear
    scotty -- Friday, 3 November 2017, at 5:53 p.m.
  • Rip or Clear
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 4 November 2017, at 2:33 a.m.
  • Rip or Clear - Rollout
    Stick -- Sunday, 5 November 2017, at 3:01 a.m.
    • Rip or Clear - Rollout and VARIANT
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 5 November 2017, at 1:41 p.m.
  • Rip or Clear
    ah_clem -- Sunday, 5 November 2017, at 4:03 p.m.
  • Rip or Clear
    Barry Murphy -- Sunday, 12 November 2017, at 12:00 p.m.