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Falafel Bets #3 - 21$-54D-F-64 - Rollouts & Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 5 November 2017, at 2:16 p.m.

In Response To: Falafel Bets #3 - 21$-54D-F-64 (Stick)

Perhaps this position posted 12 days ago was forgotten, but not by me. :)

Several years ago, I ran across and identified a set of four positions, one of which Stick posted in this thread (the first one below).
I've updated my old-bot rollouts now to XG.

To view the four positions below as a 2x2 table, WIDEN (or maximize) your window.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 184 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 158 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab----E-D---dDa--c-dA---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
21$-54Z-F-64

1.	Rollout1	20/14* 14/10	eq: +0.571
	Player: Opponent: 60.62% (G:24.53% B:2.42%) 39.38% (G:7.89% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.564...+0.578) - [99.9%] Duration: 3 hours 26 minutes
2.	Rollout1	20/14* 13/9	eq: +0.554 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 60.34% (G:24.92% B:2.53%) 39.66% (G:8.14% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.547...+0.561) - [0.1%] Duration: 3 hours 23 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 94307656 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 184 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 158 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab----E-D---dDa--c-dA---A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
21$-54Z-F-63

1.	Rollout1	20/14* 14/11	eq: +0.546
	Player: Opponent: 60.34% (G:23.71% B:2.24%) 39.66% (G:8.15% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.539...+0.553) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
2.	Rollout1	20/14* 13/10	eq: +0.524 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 59.67% (G:24.18% B:2.45%) 40.33% (G:8.42% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.518...+0.531) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13417452 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 184 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab----E-C---dEa--c-dA---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
21$-31H-F-64

1.	Rollout1	20/14* 13/9	eq: +0.539
	Player: Opponent: 60.42% (G:23.53% B:2.26%) 39.58% (G:8.32% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.531...+0.546) - [61.9%] Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
2.	Rollout1	20/14* 14/10	eq: +0.537 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 60.29% (G:23.03% B:2.13%) 39.71% (G:8.27% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.530...+0.544) - [38.1%] Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 94307656 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 184 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab----E-C---dEa--c-dA---A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
21$-31H-F-63

1.	Rollout1	20/14* 13/10	eq: +0.516
	Player: Opponent: 59.81% (G:23.24% B:2.17%) 40.19% (G:8.71% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.509...+0.523) - [78.3%] Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
2.	Rollout1	20/14* 14/11	eq: +0.512 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 60.04% (G:22.26% B:1.98%) 39.96% (G:8.53% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.505...+0.519) - [21.7%] Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 94307656 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

In the top row (first and second) positions, Blue's second roll (hitting) was 54, where he reduced his midpoint to four checkers.
In the bottom row (third and fourth) positions, Blue's second roll (hitting) was 31, where he still has five checkers on his midpoint.

In the left-hand (first and third) positions, Blue has 64 to play.
In the right-hand (second and fourth) positions, Blue has 63 to play.

Below is a simple representation of the same four positions, laid out as in the diagram table.

Plus numbers support continuing on with the same checker that hits.
Minus numbers support coming down from the midpoint.

...-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

...21$-54Z-F-64 ...+17 ..........21$-54Z-F-63 ...+22 ......... (Four checkers on midpoint)

...21$-31U-F-64 ....–2 ...........21$-31U-F-63 ....–4 .......... (Five checkers on midpoint)

...-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The story is the same whether the roll is 63 or 64:

If the midpoint as been reduced to four checkers, continue on with the blot.
If your midpoint still has five checkers, the choice is a tie (perhaps with a slight lean towards unstacking the mid).

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Falafel Bets #3 - 21$-54D-F-64
  Stick -- Tuesday, 24 October 2017, at 7:39 p.m.
  • Falafel Bets #3 - 21$-54D-F-64
    mamabear -- Wednesday, 25 October 2017, at 12:27 a.m.
  • Falafel Bets #3 - 21$-54D-F-64
    Mike Clapsadle -- Wednesday, 25 October 2017, at 1:27 a.m.
  • Falafel Bets #3 - 21$-54D-F-64
    Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 25 October 2017, at 8:26 a.m.
    • Falafel Bets #3 - 21$-54D-F-64
      christian munk-christensen -- Wednesday, 25 October 2017, at 3:07 p.m.
    • Falafel Bets #3 - 21$-54D-F-64
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 25 October 2017, at 4:00 p.m.
  • Falafel Bets #3 - 21$-54D-F-64 - Rollouts & Variants
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 5 November 2017, at 2:16 p.m.
    • Falafel Bets #3 - 21$-54D-F-64 - Rollouts & Variants
      Joe Russell -- Sunday, 5 November 2017, at 10:14 p.m.
  • Falafel Bets #3 - 21$-54D-F-64 - Rollout
    Stick -- Sunday, 5 November 2017, at 6:57 p.m.