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| XGID=-BaBCCC-a-----A--bbbbbab-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
No Double / Take (White's blot is on 3pt) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 40.46% (G:24.09% B:0.81%) | 41.47% (G:25.09% B:0.88%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 59.54% (G:13.86% B:0.41%) | 58.53% (G:14.69% B:0.45%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0.084 | -0.125 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | -0.199 | ±0.013 (-0.212..-0.186) |
| Double/Beaver: | -0.854 (-0.655) | ±0.032 (-0.885..-0.822) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+1.199) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Beaver | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 26.1% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 73501684 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 minute 14 seconds | ||
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| XGID=-BaBCCC-a-----A--bbbbabb-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
Double / Beaver (White's blot is on 4pt) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 46.07% (G:30.07% B:1.25%) | 46.49% (G:30.62% B:1.24%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 53.93% (G:12.70% B:0.38%) | 53.51% (G:13.11% B:0.41%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.104 | +0.226 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | -0.111 (-0.053) | ±0.005 (-0.115..-0.106) |
| Double/Beaver: | -0.057 | ±0.023 (-0.080..-0.035) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+1.057) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Beaver | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 53603077 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Beaver Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 39.3 seconds | ||
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| XGID=-BaBCCC-a-----A--bbbabbb-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
Double / Take (White's blot is on 5pt) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 51.08% (G:33.44% B:1.44%) | 51.48% (G:35.50% B:1.54%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 48.92% (G:12.50% B:0.40%) | 48.52% (G:13.04% B:0.44%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.241 | +0.531 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | -0.002 (-0.270) | ±0.002 (-0.004..0.000) |
| Double/Take: | +0.268 | ±0.010 (+0.258..+0.278) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.732) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 73501684 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 53.7 seconds | ||
This post is organized into two sets of trios (one above and one below). If you maximize your window (and/or shrink text), you should be able to view each trio horizontally, side-by-side-by-side (i.e., to best effect). Or in a mid-width window, you'll see the first two diagrams side-by-side and the third underneath. Or in a narrow window, three diagrams appear in a vertical pile.
In each trio, Blue's position strengthens from left to right:
The first position is No Double / Take
.The second position Double / Beaver (as Stick posted, Kauder Paradox). The third position is Double / Take.
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| XGID=-BBaCCC-a-----A--bbbbabb-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| No Double/Take (Blue's 3pt is unmade) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 44.21% (G:28.47% B:1.04%) | 44.80% (G:28.56% B:1.06%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 55.79% (G:13.13% B:0.40%) | 55.20% (G:14.53% B:0.48%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.044 | +0.084 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | -0.107 | ±0.003 (-0.111..-0.104) |
| Double/Beaver: | -0.232 (-0.124) | ±0.021 (-0.252..-0.211) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+1.107) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Beaver | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.2% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 73501684 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 2 minutes 24 seconds | ||
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| XGID=-BaBCCC-a-----A--bbbbabb-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
Double / Beaver (Blue's 2pt is unmade) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 46.07% (G:30.07% B:1.25%) | 46.49% (G:30.62% B:1.24%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 53.93% (G:12.70% B:0.38%) | 53.51% (G:13.11% B:0.41%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.104 | +0.226 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | -0.111 (-0.053) | ±0.005 (-0.115..-0.106) |
| Double/Beaver: | -0.057 | ±0.023 (-0.080..-0.035) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+1.057) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Beaver | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 53603077 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Beaver Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 39.3 seconds | ||
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| XGID=-aBBCCC-a-----A--bbbbabb-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
Double / Take (Blue's 1pt is unmade) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 53.16% (G:31.55% B:1.74%) | 53.33% (G:33.14% B:1.63%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 46.84% (G:11.87% B:0.50%) | 46.67% (G:12.24% B:0.55%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.273 | +0.572 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | -0.023 (-0.152) | ±0.005 (-0.027..-0.018) |
| Double/Take: | +0.129 | ±0.011 (+0.118..+0.140) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.871) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 73501684 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 minute 09 seconds | ||