2-1 to play - Rollout and VARIANTS

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2-1 to play - Rollout and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 8 November 2017, at 6:07 a.m.

In Response To: 2-1 to play - Rollout (Barry Murphy)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133

5 point match

pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---aB-B-C-B-cCb--c-dBA--b-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:5:10
Original position

1. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/7 eq: -0.162
Player:
Opponent: 46.50% (G:11.44% B:0.49%)
53.50% (G:16.36% B:0.47%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (-0.173...-0.150) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 24 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/5 eq: -0.189 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent: 45.29% (G:11.22% B:0.46%)
54.71% (G:14.90% B:0.33%) Conf.: ą 0.010 (-0.200...-0.179) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 56 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 21/20 13/11 eq: -0.215 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent: 43.57% (G:10.03% B:0.35%)
56.43% (G:11.36% B:0.27%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.224...-0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 29 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 13/10 eq: -0.216 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent: 44.20% (G:10.57% B:0.38%)
55.80% (G:12.71% B:0.27%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.225...-0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 55 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 21/20 8/6 eq: -0.240 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent: 42.39% (G:10.00% B:0.36%)
57.61% (G:10.29% B:0.26%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.249...-0.231) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 14 seconds

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83313523
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Barry's rollout data for his original position is copied above. (I swapped in a Blue/White diagram.)
Below are four related positions where a single change to the position is made, and in all four cases Z (reverse split, 21/20 13/11) tops the rollout.
Variants 1, 2 and 3 are contrasts (the original clearly best play becomes clearly wrong).
Variant 4 is a cusp (the original best play becomes tied).
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135

5 point match

pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a--B-B-C-B-cCb--c-dBA--b-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:5:10
Variant 1 (White 22pt blot is moved back to her 24pt)

1. Rollout¹ 21/20 13/11 eq: +0.037
Player:
Opponent: 50.37% (G:12.08% B:0.40%)
49.63% (G:11.02% B:0.24%) Conf.: ą 0.010 (+0.027...+0.047) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 44 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/7 eq: -0.008 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent: 50.89% (G:13.00% B:0.55%)
49.11% (G:17.15% B:0.46%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (-0.019...+0.003) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 18 seconds
3. Rollout² 21/20 8/6 eq: -0.032 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent: 48.06% (G:11.61% B:0.39%)
51.94% (G:10.57% B:0.29%) Conf.: ą 0.013 (-0.045...-0.019) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 32 seconds
4. Rollout² 13/10 eq: -0.042 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent: 48.36% (G:12.02% B:0.57%)
51.64% (G:12.61% B:0.30%) Conf.: ą 0.015 (-0.057...-0.028) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 27 seconds
5. Rollout² 13/11 10/9 eq: -0.050 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent: 49.47% (G:12.31% B:0.54%)
50.53% (G:15.63% B:0.56%) Conf.: ą 0.016 (-0.066...-0.034) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 44 seconds
6. Rollout² 8/5 eq: -0.062 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent: 48.94% (G:12.09% B:0.38%)
51.06% (G:15.41% B:0.37%) Conf.: ą 0.015 (-0.077...-0.046) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 37 seconds

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73501684
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73501684
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 142

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---bB-B-C-B-bCb--c-dBA--b-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2 (White 13pt spare is moved back to her 22pt)

1. Rollout¹ 21/20 13/11 eq: +0.218
Player:
Opponent: 55.14% (G:13.90% B:0.58%)
44.86% (G:10.18% B:0.22%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (+0.207...+0.229) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 59 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/5 eq: +0.175 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent: 54.40% (G:14.71% B:0.63%)
45.60% (G:13.31% B:0.31%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (+0.164...+0.186) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 54 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/10 eq: +0.164 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent: 53.87% (G:14.04% B:0.60%)
46.13% (G:11.36% B:0.26%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (+0.153...+0.175) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 46 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 21/20 8/6 eq: +0.162 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent: 53.72% (G:13.97% B:0.54%)
46.28% (G:10.36% B:0.23%) Conf.: ą 0.010 (+0.152...+0.172) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 56 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/7 eq: +0.155 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent: 54.60% (G:14.12% B:0.62%)
45.40% (G:15.01% B:0.36%) Conf.: ą 0.012 (+0.143...+0.167) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 33 seconds
6. Rollout² 21/18 eq: +0.126 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent: 52.95% (G:13.37% B:0.57%)
47.05% (G:11.42% B:0.23%) Conf.: ą 0.015 (+0.111...+0.141) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 29 seconds

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73501684
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73501684
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131

5 point match

pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---aB-B-C-B-cC-b-c-dBA--b-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:5:10
Variant 3 (White owns her 10pt instead of 11pt)

1. Rollout¹ 21/20 13/11 eq: -0.270
Player:
Opponent: 42.36% (G:8.99% B:0.32%)
57.64% (G:11.58% B:0.23%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.277...-0.263) - [100.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 39 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/7 eq: -0.292 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent: 43.91% (G:10.08% B:0.49%)
56.09% (G:18.69% B:0.49%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.299...-0.284) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 19 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 21/20 8/6 eq: -0.299 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent: 41.34% (G:9.08% B:0.32%)
58.66% (G:10.79% B:0.28%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.305...-0.292) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 38 seconds
4. Rollout² 21/18 eq: -0.326 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent: 41.21% (G:8.66% B:0.32%)
58.79% (G:12.62% B:0.29%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.335...-0.317) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 13 seconds
5. Rollout² 8/5 eq: -0.327 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent: 42.48% (G:9.73% B:0.42%)
57.52% (G:16.77% B:0.46%) Conf.: ą 0.010 (-0.337...-0.317) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 20 seconds
6. Rollout³ 13/10 eq: -0.353 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent: 41.15% (G:9.36% B:0.36%)
58.85% (G:14.94% B:0.36%) Conf.: ą 0.014 (-0.367...-0.340) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 12 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73501684
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73501684
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73501684
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133

5 point match

pip: 162
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---aB-B-CB--cCb--c-dBA--b-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:5:10
Variant 4 (Blue owns his 9pt instead of 10pt)

1. Rollout¹ 21/20 13/11 eq: +0.093
Player:
Opponent: 51.79% (G:12.25% B:0.47%)
48.21% (G:10.71% B:0.26%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.089...+0.096) - [91.2%]
Duration: 4 hours 20 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/7 eq: +0.089 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent: 53.12% (G:13.05% B:0.59%)
46.88% (G:15.88% B:0.40%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.085...+0.093) - [8.8%]
Duration: 4 hours 18 minutes
3. Rollout² 13/10 eq: +0.044 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent: 50.76% (G:12.35% B:0.51%)
49.24% (G:12.15% B:0.30%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (+0.037...+0.051) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
4. Rollout³ 21/20 8/6 eq: +0.002 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent: 48.59% (G:11.98% B:0.47%)
51.41% (G:9.49% B:0.27%) Conf.: ą 0.013 (-0.011...+0.015) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 07 seconds
5. Rollout³ 8/5 eq: -0.026 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent: 49.62% (G:12.57% B:0.45%)
50.38% (G:14.32% B:0.35%) Conf.: ą 0.014 (-0.040...-0.012) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 33 seconds
6. Rollout³ 21/18 eq: -0.031 (-0.124)
Player:
Opponent: 48.72% (G:11.24% B:0.49%)
51.28% (G:11.96% B:0.30%) Conf.: ą 0.016 (-0.047...-0.015) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 15 seconds

¹ 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73501684
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73501684
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73501684
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

2-1 to play
Barry Murphy -- Sunday, 5 November 2017, at 9:54 p.m.
- 2-1 to play
  Karol Szczerek -- Sunday, 5 November 2017, at 10:19 p.m.
- 2-1 to play - Rollout
  Barry Murphy -- Monday, 6 November 2017, at 2:50 p.m.
  - 2-1 to play - Rollout and VARIANTS
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 8 November 2017, at 6:07 a.m.
    - 2-1 to play - Rollout and VARIANTS
      Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 8 November 2017, at 7:28 a.m.
      - 2-1 to play - Rollout and VARIANTS (answer)
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 8 November 2017, at 7:35 p.m.
        
        2-1 to play - Rollout and VARIANTS (answer)
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 8 November 2017, at 8:51 p.m.
        
        2-1 to play - Rollout and VARIANTS (answer)
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 9 November 2017, at 4:26 a.m.
        
        2-1 to play - Rollout and VARIANTS (answer)
        Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 9 November 2017, at 8:14 a.m.
- 2-1 to play
  ah_clem -- Monday, 6 November 2017, at 4:10 p.m.

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