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cube action at 3a-7a

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Wednesday, 8 November 2017, at 1:41 p.m.

In Response To: cube action at 3a-7a (rambiz)

Cube action should be similar to money, so I wouldn't calculate doubling/taking points before estimating the race.

I'd use EPC for that.
Ignoring the contact:
- White is at 3,5 x 8 checkers + 22 (pipcount of straggler) = 50 EPC
- Blue is at a rolls position, with 6 rolls to go, plus some wastage. I'd use about +2 for the distribution (not more since he has an odd number of checkers) and additionally maybe 1-2 for the gap. So 6 x 7 + 1 + 2 + 2(?) = 47 EPC

47 vs 43 would be 50% and 47 vs 51.7 would be ~16% for the trailer, so trailer's 1 EPC is worth about 4%. He's 1.7 EPC better than the 16% GWC mark, which gives me about 23% GWC already.

Contact favors the trailer, so its a take.

As for the double decision, the contact has low value, I'd guess about 3-4%. So leader being at 73-74% should have a small double AtS. I think the borderline decision would be at 71-72% GWC.

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