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cube action at 3a-7a

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 8 November 2017, at 4:57 p.m.

In Response To: cube action at 3a-7a (rambiz)

Since this very often turns into a straight race, I'll first try a race formula (Trice).

Add 5 pips to white for her spares an the ace and deuce. Add a pip for the checker on the three point. That gives her an adjusted count of 38.

Add 3 to blue for the low spares, subtract 2 for the additional homeboard points, add 6 for the three extra checkers on the board to get a count of 38.

subtract 5, divide by 7, round down, and the point of last take is four pips. Blue needs to be within 3 pips of the point of last take in an unlimited game. He's not. AtS, he needs even more.

I'm not sure if the Trice count is applicable here, since it's not a straight race. 11, 12, 13, and 22 hit the blot, turning what are usually poor bearoff rolls into great rolls. OTOH, doubles other than 11 and 22 expose a blot, turning usually good bearoff rolls into poor ones (assuming white hits).

Another way to look at it is blue is usually off in six rolls, while white needs seven (ignoring doubles, and assuming both players makes two transitions each roll). An N-roll position with N==6 would be a hold. But it's better than that.

I'd cube at a "normal" score but I'd hold AtS since I don't want to see the cube go to four.

ND/T

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