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Early Gaming 44 -- Blot on 2pt Variant -- ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 23 November 2017, at 10:00 p.m.

In Response To: Early Gaming 44 -- Blot on 2pt Variant (Nack Ballard)

I did not bother to roll out my 2pt variant at Max's "normal" score –7–7 because I believe the result would be similar to Money, and I was more interested in the possibility of stumbling onto a T4 or R4 (technical or real four-score position -- for definitions click here).

Instead, I rolled out the four main scores (Money, DMP, Gammon Save, and Gammon Go). The results are reproduced below (viewed more compactly as 2x2 if you widen your window).

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 178 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 158 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-b-E-DA--eC---c-d----B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Money (Compared to Max's original, White 6pt spare moved to 23pt)

1.	Rollout1	24/20(2) 13/9 6/2*	eq: +0.362
	Player: Opponent: 58.78% (G:14.64% B:0.50%) 41.22% (G:7.86% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.356...+0.368) - [69.2%] Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/16(2)	eq: +0.359 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 59.01% (G:13.77% B:0.56%) 40.99% (G:9.26% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.353...+0.365) - [25.4%] Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
3.	Rollout1	24/20 13/9 6/2*(2)	eq: +0.356 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 57.44% (G:18.92% B:0.67%) 42.56% (G:9.06% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.350...+0.362) - [5.4%] Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
4.	Rollout2	24/20(2) 6/2*(2)	eq: +0.344 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 57.68% (G:16.53% B:0.52%) 42.32% (G:8.06% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.335...+0.353) - [0.0%] Duration: 44 minutes 10 seconds
5.	Rollout2	24/20 13/5 9/5	eq: +0.341 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 56.71% (G:20.34% B:0.75%) 43.29% (G:9.19% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.332...+0.350) - [0.0%] Duration: 49 minutes 06 seconds
6.	Rollout3	24/20(2) 13/9(2)	eq: +0.327 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 57.68% (G:14.65% B:0.48%) 42.32% (G:7.40% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.316...+0.339) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 20 seconds
7.	Rollout4	13/5 9/5 6/2*	eq: +0.277 (-0.085)
	Player: Opponent: 55.55% (G:17.91% B:0.59%) 44.45% (G:9.78% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.261...+0.292) - [0.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 24 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16319810 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16319810 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16319810 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 4 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16319810 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 178 1 point match pip: 158 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-b-E-DA--eC---c-d----B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:1:10
DMP (White 6pt spare moved to 23pt)

1.	Rollout1	24/16(2)	eq: +0.168
	Player: Opponent: 58.42% (G:18.89% B:1.55%) 41.58% (G:9.29% B:0.93%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.165...+0.171) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/20(2) 13/9 6/2*	eq: +0.157 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 57.84% (G:21.60% B:1.93%) 42.16% (G:8.52% B:0.95%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.154...+0.160) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
3.	Rollout1	24/20(2) 13/9(2)	eq: +0.143 (-0.026)
	Player: Opponent: 57.14% (G:20.66% B:1.55%) 42.86% (G:7.80% B:0.65%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.140...+0.146) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
4.	Rollout2	24/20(2) 6/2*(2)	eq: +0.133 (-0.036)
	Player: Opponent: 56.64% (G:23.94% B:1.64%) 43.36% (G:8.27% B:0.74%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.127...+0.139) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 34 seconds
5.	Rollout2	24/20 13/9 6/2*(2)	eq: +0.124 (-0.044)
	Player: Opponent: 56.22% (G:27.38% B:2.51%) 43.78% (G:8.37% B:0.69%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.118...+0.130) - [0.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 40 seconds
6.	Rollout2	24/20 13/5 9/5	eq: +0.114 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 55.71% (G:27.46% B:2.71%) 44.29% (G:9.21% B:1.07%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.108...+0.120) - [0.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 08 seconds
7.	Rollout2	13/5 9/5 6/2*	eq: +0.085 (-0.083)
	Player: Opponent: 54.25% (G:24.22% B:2.13%) 45.75% (G:10.32% B:0.92%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.079...+0.091) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 44 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16319810 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16319810 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 178 2 point match Crawford pip: 158 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-b-E-DA--eC---c-d----B-:0:0:1:44:1:0:1:2:10
Gammon Save (White 6pt spare moved to 23pt)

1.	Rollout1	24/20(2) 13/9 6/2*	eq: -0.006
	Player: Opponent: 57.75% (G:21.81% B:1.73%) 42.25% (G:8.06% B:0.60%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.009...-0.003) - [96.2%] Duration: 2 hours 48 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/20(2) 13/9(2)	eq: -0.010 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 57.23% (G:20.82% B:1.74%) 42.77% (G:7.71% B:0.62%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.012...-0.007) - [3.8%] Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
3.	Rollout2	24/20(2) 6/2*(2)	eq: -0.031 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 57.18% (G:25.00% B:1.95%) 42.82% (G:8.74% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.035...-0.027) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
4.	Rollout2	24/16(2)	eq: -0.038 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 58.79% (G:21.25% B:2.12%) 41.21% (G:10.67% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.042...-0.034) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
5.	Rollout3	24/20 13/9 6/2*(2)	eq: -0.080 (-0.074)
	Player: Opponent: 56.53% (G:28.26% B:2.23%) 43.47% (G:10.54% B:1.15%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.089...-0.072) - [0.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 14 seconds
6.	Rollout3	24/20 13/5 9/5	eq: -0.089 (-0.083)
	Player: Opponent: 56.15% (G:28.02% B:3.39%) 43.85% (G:10.59% B:0.83%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.098...-0.080) - [0.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 39 seconds
7.	Rollout3	13/5 9/5 6/2*	eq: -0.122 (-0.115)
	Player: Opponent: 55.05% (G:26.12% B:2.32%) 44.95% (G:11.13% B:1.29%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.130...-0.113) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 54 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 71475118 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 71475118 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 71475118 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 178 2 point match Crawford pip: 158 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-b-E-DA--eC---c-d----B-:0:0:1:44:0:1:1:2:10
Gammon Go (White 6pt spare moved to 23pt)

1.	Rollout1	24/20 13/5 9/5	eq: +0.481
	Player: Opponent: 61.27% (G:12.78% B:1.18%) 38.73% (G:6.90% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.479...+0.484) - [65.8%] Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/20 13/9 6/2*(2)	eq: +0.480 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 61.51% (G:12.51% B:1.07%) 38.49% (G:7.36% B:0.75%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.478...+0.483) - [34.2%] Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
3.	Rollout2	24/20(2) 6/2*(2)	eq: +0.443 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 60.28% (G:11.85% B:1.04%) 39.72% (G:7.23% B:0.65%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.438...+0.448) - [0.0%] Duration: 43 minutes 34 seconds
4.	Rollout3	24/20(2) 13/9 6/2*	eq: +0.437 (-0.044)
	Player: Opponent: 61.04% (G:10.81% B:1.05%) 38.96% (G:7.52% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.429...+0.444) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 29 seconds
5.	Rollout3	24/16(2)	eq: +0.424 (-0.057)
	Player: Opponent: 61.24% (G:9.97% B:0.78%) 38.76% (G:7.45% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.418...+0.431) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 52 seconds
6.	Rollout3	13/5 9/5 6/2*	eq: +0.417 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 57.73% (G:13.10% B:1.36%) 42.27% (G:8.80% B:0.90%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.409...+0.424) - [0.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 27 seconds
7.	Rollout3	24/20(2) 13/9(2)	eq: +0.403 (-0.078)
	Player: Opponent: 60.26% (G:9.90% B:0.77%) 39.74% (G:6.89% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.397...+0.410) - [0.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 42 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 47805405 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 47805405 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 47805405 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

As you can see, this position is only a T3, because there are only three (not four) different best plays. I had hoped that Ian's choice of Y (Yosemite, 24/20 13/9 6/2*(2)) would prevail for Money, or that B (Both, 24/20(2) 13/9(2)) would prevail at Gammon Save. As XGR++ evaluates Y .003 ahead of F (Field, 24/20(2) 13/9 6/2*) for Money, and B just .001 behind F at Gammon Save, there seemed a significant chance to capture a T4.

I have a long-term project to find an R4 for each roll of the dice. To date, I've verified at least one R4 for each of fourteen rolls, with seven (63 62 61 51 42 32 31) remaining to be conquered. If you stumble upon what evaluates as a T3 or T4 with one of those seven rolls, please let me know and I may be able to tweak it to an R4. It would give me a headstart over working from scratch.

Why my interest in the featured position, then? It uses a roll (44) for which I already have several R4s, and it didn't even make the T4 grade! Granted, but I hardly put any effort in. I just moved one checker (from White's 6pt to her 23pt) on a whim, to try to create a Money decision with a bunch of close plays. I happened to notice after the fact that it came close to evaluating as a T4, so I pursued it. I'm not so interested, really, otherwise I would extend the Money rollout for its still 5.5% chance and the Gammon Save rollout for its still 4% chance. :)

However, to make Ian feel better about his recommendation of Y (a shocking "error" of .006 and somehow not best at any main score), I've included a closely related variant where White's 23pt checker is taken from her 13pt (instead of her 6pt). See rollout below, where Ian's fine play tops the rollout.

This position looks also to be a T3, where F evaluates .011 ahead of B at DMP, and B evaluates .005 ahead of F at Gammon Save. Its T4 hopes are dashed by Y beating the other position's winner M (Magnify, 24/20 13/9 13/5) by .010 at Gammon Go (and okay, I checked, the rollout uncooperatively increased that margin).

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 171 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 158 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-b-E-DA--dC---c-e----B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Money (Compared to Max's original, White 13pt spare moved to 23pt)

1.	Rollout1	24/20 13/9 6/2*(2)	eq: +0.363
	Player: Opponent: 58.33% (G:17.01% B:0.60%) 41.67% (G:9.39% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.357...+0.369) - [59.7%] Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/20(2) 13/9 6/2*	eq: +0.362 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 59.23% (G:12.92% B:0.45%) 40.77% (G:7.73% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.357...+0.367) - [40.3%] Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.	Rollout2	24/20(2) 6/2*(2)	eq: +0.338 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 58.10% (G:14.53% B:0.49%) 41.90% (G:8.12% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.331...+0.345) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 40 seconds
4.	Rollout2	24/20(2) 13/9(2)	eq: +0.333 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 58.57% (G:12.26% B:0.43%) 41.43% (G:6.88% B:0.25%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.326...+0.340) - [0.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 28 seconds
5.	Rollout2	24/20 13/5 9/5	eq: +0.329 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 57.60% (G:17.45% B:0.66%) 42.40% (G:9.65% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.322...+0.337) - [0.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 05 seconds
6.	Rollout3	24/16(2)	eq: +0.292 (-0.071)
	Player: Opponent: 57.76% (G:11.86% B:0.48%) 42.24% (G:9.66% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.280...+0.305) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 02 seconds
7.	Rollout3	13/5 9/5 6/2*	eq: +0.249 (-0.114)
	Player: Opponent: 56.30% (G:15.86% B:0.52%) 43.70% (G:10.42% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.233...+0.265) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 34 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16319810 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16319810 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16319810 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Early Gaming 44
  Max Levenstein -- Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 6:12 a.m.
  • Early Gaming 44
    Ian Dunstan -- Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 8:43 a.m.
    • +1 *NM*
      scotty -- Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 2:17 p.m.
    • Early Gaming 44
      Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 6:27 p.m.
      • Early Gaming 44
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 7:32 p.m.
  • Early Gaming 44 -- Blot on 2pt Variant
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 8:52 p.m.
    • Early Gaming 44 -- Blot on 2pt Variant
      Ian Dunstan -- Thursday, 23 November 2017, at 9:13 a.m.
    • Early Gaming 44 -- Blot on 2pt Variant -- ROLLOUTS
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 23 November 2017, at 10:00 p.m.