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Too Obvious? -- VARIANT for smart people -- ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 3 December 2017, at 9:04 p.m.

In Response To: Too Obvious? -- VARIANT for smart people (Nack Ballard)

Kudos to Michael Sullivan for his noteworthy comments. He was right about covering the 5pt for Money, except the fourth 6 is slightly better as the blot/builder-leaving 13/11 (by .008, saith the rollout) instead of the natural-looking 8/6.

Even at Gammon Save, 13/11 beats 8/6 (by .002), sadly denying us a T4 (technical four-score position).

Perhaps the main reason I posted this variant is to spotlight the beautiful (and convincingly best) play at Gammon Go.

Detailed rollout results follow.

Nack

Money

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 164 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---cBAB-D--AbCbb-b-bB---b-:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 22 for Money

1.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: +0.655
	Player: Opponent: 66.35% (G:15.81% B:0.57%) 33.65% (G:6.07% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.651...+0.658) - [99.1%] Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
2.	Rollout1	13/9 11/9 8/6	eq: +0.649 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 65.72% (G:16.87% B:0.66%) 34.28% (G:7.18% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.645...+0.652) - [0.9%] Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
3.	Rollout1	11/5 8/6	eq: +0.646 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 66.29% (G:15.81% B:0.57%) 33.71% (G:6.10% B:0.16%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.643...+0.650) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
4.	Rollout2	20/16(2)	eq: +0.604 (-0.050)
	Player: Opponent: 66.37% (G:10.89% B:0.44%) 33.63% (G:7.18% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.597...+0.611) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 36 seconds
5.	Rollout2	20/18(2) 13/11 8/6	eq: +0.589 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 65.15% (G:14.24% B:0.56%) 34.85% (G:7.33% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.582...+0.597) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 47 seconds
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88888888 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88888888 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

DMP

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 164 1 point match pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---cBAB-D--AbCbb-b-bB---b-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 22 at DMP

1.	Rollout1	20/16(2)	eq: +0.319
	Player: Opponent: 65.93% (G:16.14% B:1.80%) 34.07% (G:7.57% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.316...+0.321) - [100.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 27 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: +0.305 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 65.24% (G:23.68% B:2.56%) 34.76% (G:6.06% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.302...+0.308) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 21 seconds
3.	Rollout1	11/5 8/6	eq: +0.304 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 65.18% (G:24.25% B:2.32%) 34.82% (G:5.88% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.301...+0.306) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 43 seconds
4.	Rollout1	13/9 11/9 8/6	eq: +0.298 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 64.92% (G:24.18% B:3.06%) 35.08% (G:8.47% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.295...+0.301) - [0.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 11 seconds
5.	Rollout1	20/18(2) 13/11 8/6	eq: +0.292 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 64.58% (G:19.71% B:2.18%) 35.42% (G:7.62% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.289...+0.294) - [0.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 28 seconds
6.	Rollout2	20/18 11/5	eq: +0.259 (-0.060)
	Player: Opponent: 62.94% (G:25.65% B:3.46%) 37.06% (G:12.02% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.253...+0.265) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 30 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88888888 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88888888 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Gammon Save

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 164 2 point match Crawford pip: 147 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---cBAB-D--AbCbb-b-bB---b-:0:0:1:22:1:0:1:2:10
Blue to play 22 at Gammon Save

1.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: +0.172
	Player: Opponent: 65.11% (G:24.53% B:2.55%) 34.89% (G:6.49% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.171...+0.174) - [99.7%] Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
2.	Rollout1	11/5 8/6	eq: +0.170 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 65.19% (G:24.06% B:2.41%) 34.81% (G:6.70% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.169...+0.171) - [0.3%] Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
3.	Rollout2	20/16(2)	eq: +0.166 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 65.77% (G:16.76% B:1.85%) 34.23% (G:7.49% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.163...+0.168) - [0.0%] Duration: 51 minutes 20 seconds
4.	Rollout3	13/9 11/9 8/6	eq: +0.145 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 64.21% (G:23.57% B:2.69%) 35.79% (G:6.95% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.141...+0.149) - [0.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 42 seconds
5.	Rollout3	20/18(2) 13/11 8/6	eq: +0.136 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 64.47% (G:20.67% B:2.42%) 35.53% (G:7.70% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.132...+0.139) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 48 seconds
1 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16319810 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16319810 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16319810 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Gammon Go

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 164 2 point match Crawford pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---cBAB-D--AbCbb-b-bB---b-:0:0:1:22:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 22 at Gammon Go

1.	Rollout1	13/9 11/9 8/6	eq: +0.641
	Player: Opponent: 66.54% (G:15.51% B:1.65%) 33.46% (G:8.21% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.637...+0.645) - [100.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 58 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: +0.617 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 67.68% (G:13.16% B:1.39%) 32.32% (G:5.65% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.613...+0.620) - [0.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 10 seconds
3.	Rollout1	11/5 8/6	eq: +0.616 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 67.46% (G:13.33% B:1.44%) 32.54% (G:5.37% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.612...+0.619) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 27 seconds
4.	Rollout2	20/18 11/5	eq: +0.602 (-0.040)
	Player: Opponent: 66.88% (G:13.20% B:1.65%) 33.12% (G:7.90% B:0.22%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.597...+0.606) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 56 seconds
5.	Rollout3	20/18(2) 13/11 8/6	eq: +0.573 (-0.068)
	Player: Opponent: 66.68% (G:11.99% B:1.29%) 33.32% (G:7.11% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.567...+0.580) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 13 seconds
6.	Rollout3	20/16(2)	eq: +0.544 (-0.097)
	Player: Opponent: 66.78% (G:10.40% B:1.01%) 33.22% (G:8.11% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.537...+0.551) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 19 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 47805405 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 47805405 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 47805405 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Too Obvious?
  Stick -- Saturday, 25 November 2017, at 8:10 a.m.
  • Too Obvious?
    Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 25 November 2017, at 9:27 a.m.
  • Too Obvious?
    christian munk-christensen -- Saturday, 25 November 2017, at 9:49 a.m.
  • Too Obvious?
    bluedice -- Saturday, 25 November 2017, at 11:24 a.m.
  • Too Obvious?
    Benf -- Saturday, 25 November 2017, at 1:02 p.m.
  • Too Obvious?
    ah_clem -- Saturday, 25 November 2017, at 5:07 p.m.
  • Too Obvious?
    svilo -- Saturday, 25 November 2017, at 10:19 p.m.
  • Variation
    Ian Dunstan -- Sunday, 26 November 2017, at 2:05 a.m.
    • Variation
      Sean Garber -- Sunday, 26 November 2017, at 6:38 a.m.
  • Too Obvious? - ++
    Stick -- Monday, 27 November 2017, at 1:43 a.m.
    • Too Obvious? - ++
      neilkaz -- Monday, 27 November 2017, at 2:07 a.m.
    • Too Obvious? -- VARIANT for smart people
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 27 November 2017, at 9:29 a.m.
      • Too Obvious? -- VARIANT for smart people
        Michael Sullivan -- Tuesday, 28 November 2017, at 6:21 p.m.
      • Too Obvious? -- VARIANT for smart people -- ROLLOUTS
        Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 3 December 2017, at 9:04 p.m.