[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

prime vs prime 31 - ROLLOUT & more

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Monday, 4 December 2017, at 7:16 p.m.

In Response To: prime vs prime 31 (Karol Szczerek)

Sorry for the late posting. Was a bit busy last few days.

Original position
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
Unlimited Game
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bBBBB-A----D-a-ccdb--AA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.Rollout124/21 13/12eq: -0,162
Player:
Opponent:		48,06% (G:15,57% B:1,01%)
51,94% (G:24,33% B:2,26%)		Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,169...-0,155) - [69,4%]
Duration: 36 minutes 38 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 13/10eq: -0,165 (-0,003)
Player:
Opponent:		45,69% (G:13,36% B:0,61%)
54,31% (G:15,75% B:0,88%)		Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,173...-0,157) - [30,6%]
Duration: 31 minutes 38 seconds
3.Rollout223/22 13/10eq: -0,222 (-0,060)
Player:
Opponent:		45,95% (G:13,84% B:0,78%)
54,05% (G:23,17% B:1,92%)		Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,236...-0,208) - [0,0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 22 seconds
4.Rollout223/22 8/5eq: -0,238 (-0,076)
Player:
Opponent:		44,91% (G:13,03% B:0,57%)
55,09% (G:20,28% B:0,71%)		Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,252...-0,224) - [0,0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 55 seconds
5.Rollout224/21 23/22eq: -0,253 (-0,091)
Player:
Opponent:		45,09% (G:13,39% B:0,74%)
54,91% (G:25,49% B:1,17%)		Conf.: ± 0,017 (-0,270...-0,236) - [0,0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 35 seconds
6.Rollout213/12 13/10eq: -0,275 (-0,113)
Player:
Opponent:		45,40% (G:14,11% B:0,76%)
54,60% (G:25,32% B:3,02%)		Conf.: ± 0,015 (-0,289...-0,260) - [0,0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 17 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

I think the 2 main factors that decides the play are Blue's homeboard strength advantage and diversification of White's builders. Because of the board strength, Blue would like to play boldly and step up provoking an early exchange while not securing the outfield blot so he can cover it soon. In turn, White's mountain of builders gives her a number of great point-on-head rolls, after which Blue won't be so happy.

Why step up to 21 instead of 22? I think Blue utilizes his board strength advantage better that way, and also, he leaves many weak 5s to White. After stepping up to 22, White's numbers are more diversified (and only few 5s are weak).

In this original position these factors balances out greatly, so I guess it's a great candidade for a reference position.

I've checked the relevance of cube position and the 2 top plays are still v.close when the cube is in White's hands, but they split if Blue owns the cube:

Altered original position.
Blue owns the cube.
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
Unlimited Game
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bBBBB-A----D-a-ccdb--AA-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.Rollout124/23 13/10eq: +0,067
Player:
Opponent:		45,63% (G:13,39% B:0,60%)
54,37% (G:15,61% B:0,89%)		Conf.: ± 0,005 (+0,062...+0,073) - [100,0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout124/21 13/12eq: +0,034 (-0,034)
Player:
Opponent:		47,89% (G:15,43% B:0,97%)
52,11% (G:24,38% B:2,29%)		Conf.: ± 0,005 (+0,028...+0,039) - [0,0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout223/22 8/5eq: -0,010 (-0,077)
Player:
Opponent:		44,66% (G:12,86% B:0,57%)
55,34% (G:20,33% B:0,68%)		Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,020...+0,000) - [0,0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 58 seconds
4.Rollout223/22 13/10eq: -0,014 (-0,081)
Player:
Opponent:		45,96% (G:13,97% B:0,81%)
54,04% (G:24,02% B:1,98%)		Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,024...-0,003) - [0,0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 32 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

In two variants below I diversified White's spares a bit, and it tips the balance in the favor of a safe play.

Variant A.
White's 8pt spare moved to 5pt.
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bBBBB-A----D-a-bcdc--AA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.Rollout124/23 13/10eq: -0,092
Player:
Opponent:		47,58% (G:13,63% B:0,61%)
52,42% (G:15,52% B:0,80%)		Conf.: ± 0,024 (-0,116...-0,068) - [100,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 8/5eq: -0,220 (-0,128)
Player:
Opponent:		43,32% (G:13,69% B:0,54%)
56,68% (G:14,99% B:0,72%)		Conf.: ± 0,026 (-0,246...-0,194) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds
3.Rollout124/21 23/22eq: -0,246 (-0,154)
Player:
Opponent:		45,49% (G:13,06% B:0,67%)
54,51% (G:26,59% B:1,13%)		Conf.: ± 0,021 (-0,267...-0,225) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 12 seconds
4.Rollout123/22 13/10eq: -0,250 (-0,157)
Player:
Opponent:		45,76% (G:13,82% B:0,85%)
54,24% (G:26,32% B:2,21%)		Conf.: ± 0,025 (-0,274...-0,225) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds
5.Rollout123/22 8/5eq: -0,270 (-0,178)
Player:
Opponent:		44,42% (G:13,07% B:0,59%)
55,58% (G:23,44% B:0,79%)		Conf.: ± 0,038 (-0,308...-0,233) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 46 seconds
6.Rollout124/21 13/12eq: -0,274 (-0,182)
Player:
Opponent:		45,38% (G:14,60% B:0,97%)
54,62% (G:28,26% B:2,66%)		Conf.: ± 0,024 (-0,298...-0,250) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 00 second
7.Rollout113/12 13/10eq: -0,289 (-0,197)
Player:
Opponent:		45,73% (G:13,45% B:0,78%)
54,27% (G:27,46% B:3,54%)		Conf.: ± 0,034 (-0,323...-0,255) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds
1 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Variant B.
White's 10pt spare moved to 9pt.
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bBBBB-A----D--accdb--AA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.Rollout124/23 13/10eq: -0,119
Player:
Opponent:		46,57% (G:13,41% B:0,58%)
53,43% (G:15,23% B:0,80%)		Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,130...-0,109) - [100,0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 15 seconds
2.Rollout123/22 13/10eq: -0,204 (-0,084)
Player:
Opponent:		46,95% (G:14,26% B:0,79%)
53,05% (G:24,41% B:1,98%)		Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,214...-0,193) - [0,0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 42 seconds
3.Rollout213/12 13/10eq: -0,216 (-0,097)
Player:
Opponent:		46,01% (G:14,23% B:0,65%)
53,99% (G:25,32% B:2,97%)		Conf.: ± 0,025 (-0,241...-0,191) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 51 seconds
4.Rollout223/22 8/5eq: -0,227 (-0,108)
Player:
Opponent:		45,17% (G:13,55% B:0,63%)
54,83% (G:20,70% B:0,80%)		Conf.: ± 0,023 (-0,250...-0,204) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 42 seconds
5.Rollout213/10 8/7eq: -0,236 (-0,117)
Player:
Opponent:		45,68% (G:14,30% B:0,79%)
54,32% (G:23,36% B:1,76%)		Conf.: ± 0,033 (-0,269...-0,203) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds
6.Rollout224/21 8/7eq: -0,240 (-0,121)
Player:
Opponent:		46,29% (G:13,05% B:0,62%)
53,71% (G:23,30% B:1,11%)		Conf.: ± 0,032 (-0,273...-0,208) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds
7.Rollout213/12 8/5eq: -0,270 (-0,151)
Player:
Opponent:		44,01% (G:13,30% B:0,68%)
55,99% (G:22,00% B:1,16%)		Conf.: ± 0,025 (-0,295...-0,245) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds
8.Rollout224/21 13/12eq: -0,279 (-0,160)
Player:
Opponent:		44,94% (G:13,37% B:0,73%)
55,06% (G:25,97% B:2,26%)		Conf.: ± 0,027 (-0,306...-0,252) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 40 seconds
9.Rollout224/23 8/5eq: -0,297 (-0,178)
Player:
Opponent:		41,37% (G:11,75% B:0,48%)
58,63% (G:15,26% B:0,86%)		Conf.: ± 0,026 (-0,323...-0,271) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 40 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.