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OTB & RO, and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 15 December 2017, at 4:07 p.m.

In Response To: OTB & RO (John O'Hagan)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 162 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---AD-C---cEaa-c-d-bB---:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	8/3 5/3	eq: -0.470
	Player: Opponent: 37.44% (G:7.75% B:0.27%) 62.56% (G:12.46% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.475...-0.465) - [91.4%] Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
2.	Rollout1	22/15*	eq: -0.475 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 40.16% (G:8.70% B:0.41%) 59.84% (G:23.41% B:1.17%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.480...-0.470) - [8.6%] Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

John's rollout of his original position is copied above.

In Variant 1 below, with White's 8pt spare stacked on her 6pt, White's priming potential is decreased, further reducing Blue's motivation to hit.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 138 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 162 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---AD-C---cEaa-b-e-bB---:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1 (Compared to the original, White is adjusted 8/6)

1.	Rollout1	8/3 5/3	eq: -0.405
	Player: Opponent: 39.07% (G:8.52% B:0.30%) 60.93% (G:12.24% B:0.46%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.413...-0.398) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
2.	Rollout1	22/15*	eq: -0.436 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 41.26% (G:9.18% B:0.43%) 58.74% (G:23.97% B:1.23%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.444...-0.428) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/11 13/8	eq: -0.466 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 39.13% (G:8.04% B:0.32%) 60.87% (G:16.80% B:0.75%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.479...-0.453) - [0.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 35 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45106670 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45106670 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

In (contrasting) Variant 2 below, a White 6pt spare is moved back to her 8pt (the opposite adjustment of the previous variant). In this case, White's priming potential is increased and her counter-attacking potential decreased. Blue's motivation to hit is therefore greater.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 142 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 162 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---AD-C---cEaa-d-c-bB---:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2 (Compared to the original, White is adjusted 6/8)

1.	Rollout1	22/15*	eq: -0.438
	Player: Opponent: 40.86% (G:8.81% B:0.39%) 59.14% (G:21.41% B:1.11%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.447...-0.430) - [100.0%] Duration: 40 minutes 09 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3 5/3	eq: -0.461 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 37.53% (G:7.91% B:0.27%) 62.47% (G:12.00% B:0.50%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.468...-0.455) - [0.0%] Duration: 34 minutes 51 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/11 13/8	eq: -0.509 (-0.071)
	Player: Opponent: 37.35% (G:7.43% B:0.27%) 62.65% (G:15.13% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.523...-0.495) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 19 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45106670 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 6956463 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

In Variant 3 below, the distant third-place candidate emerges from the depths and the result is a three-way tie.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 167 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---AC-C--AcEaa-c-d-bB---:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3 (Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 6/11)

1.	Rollout1	8/3 5/3	eq: -0.447
	Player: Opponent: 38.40% (G:7.93% B:0.30%) 61.60% (G:13.24% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.455...-0.440) - [58.0%] Duration: 30 minutes 08 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/11 13/8	eq: -0.451 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 39.51% (G:7.60% B:0.28%) 60.49% (G:16.05% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.458...-0.443) - [21.6%] Duration: 34 minutes 54 seconds
3.	Rollout1	22/15*	eq: -0.451 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 41.35% (G:8.50% B:0.40%) 58.65% (G:25.84% B:1.79%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.459...-0.443) - [20.4%] Duration: 32 minutes 45 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45106670 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or not with this 52
  John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 12 December 2017, at 10:28 p.m.
  • Hit or not with this 52
    Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 13 December 2017, at 9:25 a.m.
  • Hit or not with this 52
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 13 December 2017, at 3:01 p.m.
  • Hit or not with this 52
    christian munk-christensen -- Wednesday, 13 December 2017, at 3:23 p.m.
  • Hit or not with this 52
    hominid -- Wednesday, 13 December 2017, at 5:50 p.m.
  • Hit or not with this 52
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 13 December 2017, at 8:28 p.m.
  • Hit or not with this 52
    Francesco Mauri -- Thursday, 14 December 2017, at 8:40 a.m.
  • OTB & RO
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 14 December 2017, at 8:11 p.m.
    • OTB & RO, and VARIANTS
      Nack Ballard -- Friday, 15 December 2017, at 4:07 p.m.