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6-1 to play

Posted By: Casper Van der Tak
Date: Sunday, 24 December 2017, at 7:52 a.m.

In Response To: 6-1 to play (Barry Murphy)

To study this, look at the number of times you can hit after a 25 or 26, and realize how vital the hit is (the swing between hitting and missing is enormous), then how often you can (1) attack and (2) point after a non-escaping entry, and realize the swing (if you cannot point or cannot hit loose) is relatively minor , and how often you can make the 2 naturally after a dance, a realize the swing is very minor. You need to take into account the probability of each case (4/37, 7/36 and 25/36), but if you do this you see why 12/5 is wrong.

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