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7 pt epidemia RO and comment

Posted By: svilo
Date: Thursday, 28 December 2017, at 6:02 p.m.

In Response To: 7 pt epidemia (svilo)





White is Player 2

score: 9
pip: 111
11 point match
pip: 128
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBbBCB----b---b-BbB-bbc-:0:0:1:43:4:9:0:11:8
Blue to play 43

1.Rollout120/13eq: +0.285
Player:
Opponent:		53.40% (G:16.06% B:0.63%)
46.60% (G:19.35% B:0.54%)		Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.267...+0.302) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22.8 seconds
2.Rollout118/15 18/14eq: +0.100 (-0.185)
Player:
Opponent:		48.84% (G:13.75% B:0.76%)
51.16% (G:17.74% B:0.51%)		Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.083...+0.117) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24.1 seconds
3.Rollout118/11eq: +0.093 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:		49.07% (G:13.40% B:0.63%)
50.93% (G:14.65% B:0.61%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.077...+0.108) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23.8 seconds
4.XG Roller++20/17 6/2eq: +0.022 (-0.262)
Player:
Opponent:		47.17% (G:14.10% B:0.56%)
52.83% (G:22.71% B:0.23%)
5.2-ply18/14 6/3eq: +0.101 (-0.183)
Player:
Opponent:		46.56% (G:13.56% B:0.57%)
53.44% (G:17.15% B:0.26%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

First impression of this mutual 7pt desease: He leads the race. We have the better position - With 4 pt. boards he has a) 3 men sucked to his ace, b) 4 and 5 points open vs our 1 and 4, c) our barpoint anchor freezes two of his points. In this mutual zugzwang position we would certainly like to pass the move to the oponent...

The position was presented as a "break/or not home board". If we play "safe" we lose our board advantage and get worse board than his. And he has the race... No, we should play bold here. Because he has 2 high points open and he has no powder to hit loose and then follow up; and because the bar point guards two,leaving the golden point is a tactical means to retain a long term advantage - the holding game from the bar point. 7 point desease is a particular case of the more general group of TMP (too many points) positions. Back in the early 1990s Grandmaster in chess and 5 times champion of Bulgaria Evgeny Ermenkov coined this term.
Practically RO was not needed.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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