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6 From Yesterday's Chou--test yourself--toughies

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 1 January 2018, at 1:57 a.m.

In Response To: 6 From Yesterday's Chou--test yourself--toughies (Phil Simborg)

For #1 you need to compare it to the variant below to better understand it.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 136 Unlimited Game pip: 114 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bbFDC----B---b-bbbba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

---

#2 - a six isn't always market loss

#3 - taking a diversified builder out of the zone is obviously far more important than taking a stacked man out of the zone

#4 - ++ would have sufficed to give you a sizeable pass. One spare back on your 6pt changes this position enormously.

#5 - #obviousdmpplay

#6 - speaking of dmp plays, running is again the clear cut dmp play. We make the dmp play when it's clear not only because it's right 99% of the time, but on the rare occasion it is wrong, it isn't likely to be a big error. It's similar to 'make the 5pt' in this respect. There's the 5pt, which is right so often, and then there's play B. Even when play B is correct it isn't much of an error to have made the 5pt whereas if you make play B that is highly likely to show up blood red on your XG eval.

I can extend this later to further hammer out the variance and see the true size of the error but as we can see already, it most likely comes in around .020. I would have ran here too fwiw.

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 138 Unlimited Game pip: 127 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=--aC--DaC-B-bB---ccc-b--A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 64

1.	Rollout1	8/2* 6/2	eq: +0.366
	Player: Opponent: 55.45% (G:28.19% B:0.50%) 44.55% (G:10.05% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.357...+0.375) - [99.8%] Duration: 5 minutes 41 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/14	eq: +0.347 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 59.28% (G:11.58% B:0.49%) 40.72% (G:8.57% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.338...+0.356) - [0.2%] Duration: 8 minutes 58 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 71262461 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• 6 From Yesterday's Chou--test yourself--toughies
  Phil Simborg -- Sunday, 31 December 2017, at 2:56 p.m.
  • 6 From Yesterday's Chou--test yourself--toughies
    Stick -- Monday, 1 January 2018, at 1:57 a.m.
    • 6 From Yesterday's Chou--test yourself--toughies
      Phil Simborg -- Monday, 1 January 2018, at 6:49 a.m.
    • 6 From Yesterday's Chou--test yourself--toughies
      Robert Wachtel -- Monday, 1 January 2018, at 6:13 p.m.
    • 6 From Yesterday's Chou--test yourself--toughies
      Stick -- Tuesday, 2 January 2018, at 6:57 a.m.