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BGonline.org Forums
Interesting recube @ -3-8
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Interesting recube @ -3-8 (Carlo Melzi)
Date: Thursday, 4 January 2018, at 5:27 a.m.
So since it's an auto recube which puts the match on the line for both players all we need to know is the match equity for 1a 8a C to know our take point. That puts it at 7%.
Does the opponent have 7%? We leave a shot with [62 61 52 51 42 41] or 12 numbers. Most of those will be a single direct shot so we get hit in, let's call it 3.5 games (rounding) or 10% of the games. Now if the opponent won all 10% of those it would be easy, peasy japanesey but he doesn't. We'll have either 4 or 5 men off and the opponent still has to make his 3pt. and worry about his spare distribution.
Our winning chances with our crunched board v. a closed board with perfect distribution would be, on average, assuming half the games with 5 off and half with 4 off, is 17%. Now, since there's already a dead checker on the ace point we can easily bump that average up to 25%. Toss in the mix that he still has to close us out and get his spares properly aligned I'd jump up to, idk, given his distribution and coverage, 45%? So the 10% of the games he hits us have come tumbling down to 6%.
We aren't done yet though. There are times we repeat the potential for leaving that shot with our small numbers but it can't be worth much. Notch that 6% up a tad and we're going to get a close T/P decision I figure.
Would I double? Answer: Who am I playing? One last thing worth noting is that doubling nullifies our gammon potential to win the match anyway that way. We could roll well or our opponent roll poorly and luck into a match win anyway.
Would I take? Answer: No. Note even against XG.
Stick
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