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3a 4a cube action - proto-backgame

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Thursday, 4 January 2018, at 6:01 p.m.

In Response To: 3a 4a cube action - proto-backgame (ah_clem)

Without stepping into the discussion between Michael and Bob, here's my 20-20 hindsight analysis:

This is a huge hold AtS

  • Blue is way ahead, but a large part of his equity is from gammons
  • If he cubes to 2, he doesn't get full value for the gammons
  • And white can recube for the match, killing gammons entirely, as soon as she gets to 50%.

I peeked at this at 5a5a and it's a clear cube with the take decision too close to call. Here it's a massive blunder to ship it. I think by now everyone should know that I doubled.





White is GammonBot_XVIII

score: 1
pip: 198
5 point match
pip: 131
score: 2

Blue is You
XGID=baBb--D-C---bEA--c-e------:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.83% (G:38.81% B:3.31%) 63.37% (G:41.43% B:6.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.17% (G:5.91% B:0.43%) 36.63% (G:5.85% B:0.77%)
Cubeless Equities +0.942 +1.564
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.722±0.023 (+0.698..+0.745)
Double/Take:+0.479 (-0.243)±0.036 (+0.443..+0.515)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.278)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 31.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 26 minutes 16 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

What happened next was after another 5 moves (and some checker errors on my part) white established a viable backgame, I was forced to leave a shot, and she recubed:





White is GammonBot_XVIII

score: 1
pip: 187
5 point match
pip: 93
score: 2

Blue is You
XGID=-bBbABDBCa--bA---c-da-----:1:-1:-1:00:2:1:0:5:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 50.53% (G:4.64% B:0.43%) 50.71% (G:4.34% B:0.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 49.47% (G:29.65% B:12.24%) 49.29% (G:30.13% B:12.70%)
Cubeless Equities -0.166 +0.554
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.551 (-0.003)±0.016 (+0.535..+0.567)
Redouble/Take:+0.554±0.017 (+0.537..+0.571)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.446)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:59.1%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 57 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

And of course I lost from here. (c:

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