BGonline.org Forums

Why use a money game situation?

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 21 January 2018, at 5:22 p.m.

In Response To: To slot or not (Kevin McDonough)

I may sound a little harsh here, but portraying this as a money game situation is simply nonsense. Of course for money you don't slot since you have a big cash if you just double.

There have been several problems posted here, where the leader has missed a clear strong cube, and the OP is wondering why a very safe checker play is then correct. This leads to time wasted by the readers and responders and if the OP would simply check cube action prior to posting he'd get it right.

In the match situation, the opp's TP is less than 7% so Ed needs to finish the close out and then take off a couple checkers and be looking safe next turn to cube.

Ed goofed OTB here as since he needs to make a close out, the best way to do so is to risk the 17-1 joker 61 and slot.

		White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 46 21 point match pip: 104 score: 8 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BBBBC------B-A-A----cdd-:3:1:1:63:8:4:0:21:10
Blue to play 63

1.	Rollout1	15/12 13/7	eq: +0.7456
	Player: Opponent: 83.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 16.24% (G:2.31% B:0.02%) Conf.: ±0.0011 (+0.7445...+0.7468) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 00 second
2.	Rollout1	17/11 13/10	eq: +0.7322 (-0.0135)
	Player: Opponent: 82.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 17.12% (G:1.73% B:0.02%) Conf.: ±0.0011 (+0.7311...+0.7333) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 09 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 8967453 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Here's what Ed needs to do to get in a good cube, but one that is still a take.

		White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 46 21 point match pip: 46 score: 8 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBCBB---------------cdd-:3:1:1:00:8:4:0:21:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	91.390% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)	91.526% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	8.610% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)	8.474% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.8278	+0.9503
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.9273 (-0.0175)	±0.0010 (+0.9263..+0.9283)
Redouble/Take:	+0.9448	±0.0010 (+0.9437..+0.9458)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.0552)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 90786374 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 3.4 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Anyhow, please post match situations as match situations!!

Messages In This Thread

• To slot or not
  Kevin McDonough -- Sunday, 21 January 2018, at 4:59 a.m.
  • To slot or not
    Stick -- Sunday, 21 January 2018, at 5:21 a.m.
    • To slot or not
      Kevin McDonough -- Sunday, 21 January 2018, at 5:38 a.m.
      • Why use a money game situation?
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 21 January 2018, at 5:22 p.m.
        • Why use a money game situation?
          Kevin McDonough -- Sunday, 21 January 2018, at 5:40 p.m.
  • To slot or not
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 21 January 2018, at 3:20 p.m.