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Try this one RO and comments

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Sunday, 21 January 2018, at 10:36 p.m.

In Response To: Try this one (Bob Koca)

After any play white's next roll can be broken down into rolls that hit and rolls that miss. If you cut the shots down by one then 1s hit instead of 2s which mean the non hitting rolls are better for the race. Roughly they would be about a pip better and there is also wastage consideration after 61, 51, 41.

If you don't get hit you have about 1/3 win chance so the extra 1/36 hits by staying back costs you about 1% of the games. An extra pip is worth about 2% here and happens about 2/3 of the time so it looks like that is more important. It is very close though:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 71 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 80 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBC-------b-B-abbbbbb-:1:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:1
Blue to play 61

1.	Rollout1	16/9	eq: -0.5451
	Player: Opponent: 23.38% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) 76.62% (G:1.28% B:0.01%) Conf.: ±0.0010 (-0.5461...-0.5442) - [99.9%] Duration: 1.9 seconds
2.	Rollout1	16/15 16/10	eq: -0.5474 (-0.0022)
	Player: Opponent: 23.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 76.65% (G:1.43% B:0.01%) Conf.: ±0.0011 (-0.5484...-0.5463) - [0.1%] Duration: 1.8 seconds
3.	Rollout1	16/10 6/5	eq: -0.5486 (-0.0034)
	Player: Opponent: 23.34% (G:0.02% B:0.00%) 76.66% (G:1.54% B:0.01%) Conf.: ±0.0009 (-0.5494...-0.5477) - [0.0%] Duration: 1.7 seconds
4.	XG Roller++	16/10 5/4	eq: -0.5650 (-0.0198)
	Player: Opponent: 22.68% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) 77.32% (G:1.84% B:0.02%)
5.	3-ply	16/10 4/3	eq: -0.5733 (-0.0281)
	Player: Opponent: 22.43% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) 77.57% (G:2.17% B:0.02%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 96244518 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• 5-2 to play at DMP
  Barry Murphy -- Monday, 15 January 2018, at 3:18 p.m.
  • 5-2 to play at DMP
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 15 January 2018, at 4:47 p.m.
    • 5-2 to play at DMP - Nice analysis *NM*
      bluedice -- Monday, 15 January 2018, at 6:58 p.m.
  • 5-2 to play at DMP
    ah_clem -- Monday, 15 January 2018, at 7:29 p.m.
  • 5-2 to play at DMP-Rollout
    Barry Murphy -- Tuesday, 16 January 2018, at 3:35 p.m.
    • 5-2 to play at DMP-Rollout
      Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 January 2018, at 3:50 p.m.
      • 5-2 to play at DMP-Rollout
        ah_clem -- Tuesday, 16 January 2018, at 7:17 p.m.
    • Try this one
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 18 January 2018, at 1:55 a.m.
      • Try this one
        ah_clem -- Thursday, 18 January 2018, at 3:32 p.m.
        • Try this one
          Bob Koca -- Thursday, 18 January 2018, at 5:27 p.m.
      • Try this one RO and comments
        Bob Koca -- Sunday, 21 January 2018, at 10:36 p.m.