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Straggler on 5-point, RO

Posted By: higonefive
Date: Tuesday, 23 January 2018, at 10:44 p.m.

In Response To: Wrote an Article once did I (Stick)

Here we are. Shifting the straggler, we’re getting this picture. Making the ace-point isn’t settled, as a ‘universal’ rule, once hitting lose there, clearcut to make it in a follow up. Given the value equation of prime/blitz/race/contact value, there is some evidence, that making the ace point will hurt the prime value. Even the bot, which has no problem to make the ace, will make the ace not every time.

So I think, there is some research necessary, in this field. A massive RO, coming out of with 0.004/0.005 as a difference is for me a hint to view making the bar point as a matter of stile. Spanish, Marshall Attack.

2-point 8/2*/1 13/7 8/7 0.155 XG Roller ++

3-point 13/7 8/7 8/1 0.036 XG Roller ++

4-point 8/1 13/7 8/7 0.005 Rollout 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Conf .0022

5-point 8/1 13/7 8/7 0.004 Rollout 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Conf .0030

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 150 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A---aD-C---eEa--c-e--A-A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.	Rollout1	8/1	eq: -0,362
	Player: Opponent: 39,80% (G:10,01% B:0,18%) 60,20% (G:11,93% B:0,50%) Conf.: ± 0,003 (-0,366...-0,359) - [96,6%] Duration: 6 hours 49 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/7 8/7	eq: -0,367 (-0,004)
	Player: Opponent: 40,04% (G:9,33% B:0,21%) 59,96% (G:12,14% B:0,52%) Conf.: ± 0,003 (-0,370...-0,363) - [3,4%] Duration: 7 hours 41 minutes
3.	XG Roller++	13/7 6/5*	eq: -0,376 (-0,014)
	Player: Opponent: 40,96% (G:10,57% B:0,28%) 59,04% (G:17,33% B:1,18%)
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Wrote an Article once did I
  Stick -- Saturday, 20 January 2018, at 11:49 a.m.
  • Wrote an Article once did I
    Michael -- Saturday, 20 January 2018, at 4:25 p.m.
  • Wrote an Article once did I
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 20 January 2018, at 7:12 p.m.
    • Wrote an Article once did I
      Bill Finneran -- Saturday, 20 January 2018, at 7:59 p.m.
      • Wrote an Article once did I
        Colin Owen -- Saturday, 20 January 2018, at 10:29 p.m.
    • Wrote an Article once did I
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 21 January 2018, at 5:24 p.m.
  • Wrote an Article once did I
    Neil Robins -- Saturday, 20 January 2018, at 11:34 p.m.
  • Wrote an Article once did I - Rollout
    Colin Owen -- Sunday, 21 January 2018, at 9:10 p.m.
    • Wrote an Article once did I - Rollout
      Stick -- Sunday, 21 January 2018, at 11:53 p.m.
      • Wrote an Article once did I - Rollout
        christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 22 January 2018, at 2:46 p.m.
        • Wrote an Article once did I - Rollout
          Stick -- Monday, 22 January 2018, at 2:59 p.m.
      • Shifting the straggler up'n down.
        higonefive -- Monday, 22 January 2018, at 7:27 p.m.
        • Straggler on 5-point: Bar point 0.002 better, after 1296 trials, confidence interval 0,013 *NM*
          higonefive -- Monday, 22 January 2018, at 8:05 p.m.
  • Straggler on 5-point, RO
    higonefive -- Tuesday, 23 January 2018, at 10:44 p.m.