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Blue to play 54

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 24 January 2018, at 10:56 p.m.

In Response To: Blue to play 54 (christian munk-christensen)

as that will up the BGs

While the QF play is obviously not hitting now hoping to hit both blots I'm not convinced it's about picking up bgs. Will there be more backgammons if we get three bots than two? Of course, but you should know the following.

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 98 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 60 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=bBBBCCB--A---------cbbbbb-:1:-1:1:12:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 12 1. Rollout1 9/6 eq: +1.293 Player: Opponent: 94.81% (G:40.64% B:1.10%) 5.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.290...+1.296) Duration: 0.2 second 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74050063 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 117 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 60 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=cBBBCCB--A---------bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:12:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 12 1. Rollout1 9/6 eq: +1.691 Player: Opponent: 94.46% (G:76.89% B:5.58%) 5.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.687...+1.695) Duration: 0.5 second 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74050063 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The jump in backgammons from two men in the air to three men in the air isn't that large, about 4.5%. So how many more can we reasonably expect to win here as we surely won't always pick up both checkers often settling for one down the line to assure we get the one when our timing is shorter? The real jump in bgs comes when we go from three checkers to four and that yields ~20% backgammons.

So I don't know if waiting around to potentially pick up both blots will stem from bgs or simply more gs or likely a combination of both but I don't expect the jump to break any pole vaulting records.

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• Would you could you in a car?
  Stick -- Monday, 22 January 2018, at 3:02 p.m.
  • Would you could you in a car?
    neilkaz -- Monday, 22 January 2018, at 4:51 p.m.
  • Would you could you in a car?
    Michael -- Monday, 22 January 2018, at 5:22 p.m.
    • Would you could you in a car?
      Michael -- Monday, 22 January 2018, at 5:25 p.m.
      • Would you could you in a car?
        Michael -- Monday, 22 January 2018, at 6:15 p.m.
  • Would you could you in a car?
    Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 22 January 2018, at 6:14 p.m.
  • Would you could you in a car?
    Bob Koca -- Monday, 22 January 2018, at 7:59 p.m.
    • Would you could you in a car?
      Stick -- Tuesday, 23 January 2018, at 12:39 p.m.
  • Would you could you in a car? - Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 23 January 2018, at 12:43 p.m.
    • Would you could you in a car? - Rollout
      hominid -- Tuesday, 23 January 2018, at 2:43 p.m.
      • Would you could you in a car? - Rollout
        Stick -- Tuesday, 23 January 2018, at 8:48 p.m.
    • Blue to play 54
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 24 January 2018, at 7:37 p.m.
      • Blue to play 54
        Stick -- Wednesday, 24 January 2018, at 8:20 p.m.
      • Blue to play 54
        christian munk-christensen -- Wednesday, 24 January 2018, at 10:44 p.m.
        • Blue to play 54
          Stick -- Wednesday, 24 January 2018, at 10:56 p.m.
      • Blue to play 54 -- ROLLOUT and Variants
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 25 January 2018, at 12:45 a.m.
        • Blue to play 54 -- ROLLOUT and Variants
          Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 25 January 2018, at 8:39 a.m.
  • Would you could you in a car?
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 24 January 2018, at 9:08 p.m.
  • Rollout w/o Jacoby
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 24 January 2018, at 9:19 p.m.