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Backgame cube action

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 30 January 2018, at 11:42 p.m.

In Response To: Backgame cube action (Karol Szczerek)

Tough one, Karol! I think Whit'e true tp ats is ~ 26% less 42% of his g's less a little for cube vig. How many wins for White after Blue's 20 hitters? Lots of in-and-crack numbers so I'll guess 15% or 3/20. How about White's chances after Blue's 16 non-hitters? White will have 8 real good rolls on his next turn: D6,D4,D2,D1,62,42 while most of the others leave, on average, a double shot. Looks like about 8 wins for White in these 16 games. So that's 11/36 for >30% wins. I think White wins at least 10% gammons so his gammon-adjusted tp is 22% less a little for cube vig. So White clearly should take IMO.

Should Blue recube? I doubt it. You're about 9%-10% away from an efficient recube and I think that's too far away given the fact that you're only down 13a-11a.

So NR vs. an even opponent and the same against a 5 PR worse player unless I was almost sure they'd pass. The way your question is worded makes me think that it's a recube against an even opponent but not against a weaker opponent.

But I'll stick with NR in both cases (but not with much confidence).

Messages In This Thread

• Backgame cube action
  Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 30 January 2018, at 9:26 p.m.
  • Backgame cube action
    Stick -- Tuesday, 30 January 2018, at 10:02 p.m.
    • Backgame cube action
      Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 30 January 2018, at 10:11 p.m.
      • Backgame cube action
        Stick -- Tuesday, 30 January 2018, at 10:16 p.m.
        • Backgame cube action
          Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 30 January 2018, at 11:00 p.m.
          • Backgame cube action
            Stick -- Tuesday, 30 January 2018, at 11:25 p.m.
            • Backgame cube action
              Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 31 January 2018, at 7:40 a.m.
              • Backgame cube action
                Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 31 January 2018, at 11:33 a.m.
                • Backgame cube action
                  Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 31 January 2018, at 4:58 p.m.
              • Backgame cube action
                Stick -- Wednesday, 31 January 2018, at 11:26 p.m.
  • Backgame cube action
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 30 January 2018, at 11:42 p.m.
  • Backgame cube action
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 31 January 2018, at 1:03 a.m.
  • Backgame cube action
    Michael -- Wednesday, 31 January 2018, at 4:24 p.m.
    • Backgame cube action
      Bill Patterson -- Thursday, 1 February 2018, at 1:19 p.m.
      • Backgame cube action
        Michael -- Thursday, 1 February 2018, at 10:48 p.m.
    • Backgame cube action
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 1 February 2018, at 5:48 p.m.
  • Backgame cube action - ROLLOUTS
    Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 31 January 2018, at 9:55 p.m.