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Backgame cube action

Posted By: Michael
Date: Wednesday, 31 January 2018, at 4:24 p.m.

In Response To: Backgame cube action (Karol Szczerek)

I wrote a program that can be used for this and can be downloaded from here:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=19JWtrkXL_BHAjHC200Obx80GnA-R_Nqe

Gannons or no gammons for White, blue needs about 70% to Re-double AtS.
He currently has 20/36 hitting numbers (56% hit, 44% miss)
Assuming he misses (44% of the times he does) then:
On next roll White has 14/36 safe rolls and 22/36 bad rolls (61%).
If you do the propabality estimates for a HIT blue may eventually end up to more
than 80% chance but only about 80% of those hits will eventually be wins.
Therefore his overall game winning chance is more likely to be less than 70%
indicating ND.

Notice white will almost never redouble since most of his positive outcomes lead to TG.
It looks the whole issue is for Blue to keep the Cube so he can cash the game in case he hits.
If he doubles right now he would deprive himself from that.

Imo most of the much weaker players will Take this because the gammons.

Messages In This Thread

• Backgame cube action
  Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 30 January 2018, at 9:26 p.m.
  • Backgame cube action
    Stick -- Tuesday, 30 January 2018, at 10:02 p.m.
    • Backgame cube action
      Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 30 January 2018, at 10:11 p.m.
      • Backgame cube action
        Stick -- Tuesday, 30 January 2018, at 10:16 p.m.
        • Backgame cube action
          Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 30 January 2018, at 11:00 p.m.
          • Backgame cube action
            Stick -- Tuesday, 30 January 2018, at 11:25 p.m.
            • Backgame cube action
              Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 31 January 2018, at 7:40 a.m.
              • Backgame cube action
                Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 31 January 2018, at 11:33 a.m.
                • Backgame cube action
                  Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 31 January 2018, at 4:58 p.m.
              • Backgame cube action
                Stick -- Wednesday, 31 January 2018, at 11:26 p.m.
  • Backgame cube action
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 30 January 2018, at 11:42 p.m.
  • Backgame cube action
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 31 January 2018, at 1:03 a.m.
  • Backgame cube action
    Michael -- Wednesday, 31 January 2018, at 4:24 p.m.
    • Backgame cube action
      Bill Patterson -- Thursday, 1 February 2018, at 1:19 p.m.
      • Backgame cube action
        Michael -- Thursday, 1 February 2018, at 10:48 p.m.
    • Backgame cube action
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 1 February 2018, at 5:48 p.m.
  • Backgame cube action - ROLLOUTS
    Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 31 January 2018, at 9:55 p.m.