Thanks for all the input.
OP is a no redouble AtS.
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| XGID=---CBBBB------A----b-aAfB-:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:13:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66,54% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 67,87% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33,46% (G:18,10% B:2,86%) | 32,13% (G:18,09% B:3,84%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,121 | +0,423 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,432 | ±0,005 (+0,427..+0,437) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,359 (-0,074) | ±0,012 (+0,347..+0,370) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,568) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10,3% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Moving white's blot back 1 pip to the 5pt still doesn't make it a redouble.
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| XGID=---CBBBB------A----ba-AfB-:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:13:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69,46% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 70,71% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30,54% (G:14,34% B:2,11%) | 29,29% (G:14,52% B:2,76%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,224 | +0,608 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,560 | ±0,006 (+0,554..+0,565) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,538 (-0,021) | ±0,012 (+0,526..+0,550) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,440) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4,4% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 99,9% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 5 minutes 32 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Back to the OP, if we change the score to 4-0/13, the redouble is correct.
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| XGID=---CBBBB------A----b-aAfB-:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:13:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66,56% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 67,86% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33,44% (G:18,14% B:3,00%) | 32,14% (G:18,30% B:4,92%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,130 | +0,538 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,470 (-0,032) | ±0,005 (+0,464..+0,475) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,502 | ±0,011 (+0,491..+0,514) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,498) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 8 minutes 47 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
If we upgrade the cube to 4, so redoubling puts it at 8, XG calculates we should go for it even at 0-0/13. I guess it's because gammon value is reduced for white due to match limit.
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| XGID=---CBBBB------A----b-aAfB-:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:13:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66,66% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 67,88% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33,34% (G:18,31% B:3,99%) | 32,12% (G:18,58% B:8,75%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,128 | +0,564 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,460 (-0,054) | ±0,005 (+0,455..+0,465) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,514 | ±0,011 (+0,503..+0,524) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,486) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 5 minutes 53 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2