My standard reference position for the borderline take/pass decision against a 20pt anchor with your bar point made is 20 pips to 120. OtB I thought this was over the border on the other side of it. I ran 1296 of XGR+/XGR+ to make sure nothing fishy was going on in the rollout.
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| XGID=--A-ABCAC---cB---bddB--b--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 76.87% (G:1.87% B:0.02%) | 77.20% (G:1.72% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 23.13% (G:1.01% B:0.02%) | 22.80% (G:1.00% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.546 | +1.102 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.920 (-0.063) | ±0.004 (+0.916..+0.924) |
| Double/Take: | +0.983 | ±0.005 (+0.978..+0.988) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.017) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75628317 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 18 minutes 32 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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| XGID=--A-ABCAC---cB---bddB--b--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 76.91% (G:1.91% B:0.02%) | 77.21% (G:1.58% B:0.03%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 23.09% (G:1.03% B:0.02%) | 22.79% (G:1.05% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.547 | +1.099 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.917 (-0.054) | ±0.008 (+0.909..+0.925) |
| Double/Take: | +0.971 | ±0.009 (+0.963..+0.980) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.029) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17744582 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 6 hours 03 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10