OtB I tanked on this decision. The position wasn't exactly your run of the mill common occurrence. After going through how all the numbers play immediately and visualizing how it would play out I came to the conclusion that it might be too good but it wasn't worth not doubling for two reasons. First, I have to play it out. I try to be XG but I'm not XG and I could envision some up and coming decisions where I may not be sure of what to play. Second, the obvious, since it's not a routine position there's the possibility that others might take. I did cube and got taken.
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| XGID=c-ABBBBb---B-BA----bbbbbA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 70.44% (G:47.47% B:2.88%) | 70.31% (G:47.47% B:3.04%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 29.56% (G:7.92% B:0.40%) | 29.69% (G:8.01% B:0.43%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.829 | +1.654 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +1.005 | ±0.012 (+0.993..+1.017) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.421 (+0.416) | ±0.022 (+1.399..+1.442) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (-0.005) | |
| Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass | ||
| Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 1.2% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75628317 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 78.1% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 3 minutes 37 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10