BGonline.org Forums

ran.nfl wrote about Pederson and his play call decisions

Posted By: higonefive
Date: Friday, 9 February 2018, at 12:54 p.m.

In Response To: ran.nfl wrote about Pederson and his play call decisions (Phil Simborg)

So there is the question where cheating begins. Doug Pederson won through two crucial fourth down conversions: one with the 'Philly Special', GWC goes up to 5%, and the other fourth down conversion took even more guts to go for it on fourth-and-1 from the Eagles' 45-yard line with 5:39 left in the fourth quarter. Philadelphia was trailing for the first time all game, and the Patriots had scored touchdowns in their previous three drives. The old, stale "book" for NFL coaches says to punt the ball there because a failed fourth down sets up New England in scoring position right away. That old book is slowly going out of print with the help of analytics, offensive-minded coaches and a league-wide trend toward rules that all favor scoring. And the move to go for a first down cranked the GWC up for 12%, burning 7:01 from the clock, ending up with six points. ZEUS is now called ZENO, it can answer a bunch of questions:

Zeno can accurately answer the following questions:

• When does a team’s Game Winning Chance increase by going for it on 4th down? • What are the relative values of the rushing and passing matchups? • What are the GWC merits of a two-point conversion attempt vs. a PAT? • How deep must an opponent be pinned to justify a short punt? • When is an on-side kick justified? • When is it correct to take an intentional safety or voluntarily allow an opponent to score a touchdown? • How does an incremental improvement in rushing or passing affect seasonal expected wins? • How much does a penalty or turnover affect GWC? • What is the value of running down the play clock with a lead?..."

When is it correct to take an intentional safety or voluntarily allow an opponent to score a touchdown? The darkest question. Perhaps NE was giving up intentionally a little GWC, to set up a high scoring game. And it worked, until the pass rush from the Eagles, choking all the time, boxes popped out with the first sack, the strip sack, destroying the winning drive from the goat. Up to this point, game stayed open through play calling like Zeno. Option pass plays, trick play, fourth down conversions, 2 point conversions. Zeno arrived, big data risk management also.

If the NFL will cut concussion problems, pain killer addiction, the game has to shift from 'defense wins Championchips' onwards to high scoring games, sharper rules to protect the vulnerable scrambling QB against sheap shots (Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo for example). As we see in SB 52.

Doug Pedeson is on the bandwagon. Time is changing.

https://edjsports.com/news/the-modern-nfl-an-intricate-game-of-risk-management/

Messages In This Thread

• OT to Chuck Bower Is ZEUS still alive?
  higonefive -- Tuesday, 6 February 2018, at 4:46 p.m.
  • ran.nfl wrote about Pederson and his play call decisions
    higonefive -- Tuesday, 6 February 2018, at 7:38 p.m.
    • ran.nfl wrote about Pederson and his play call decisions
      TarHeelFan -- Tuesday, 6 February 2018, at 8:32 p.m.
      • ran.nfl wrote about Pederson and his play call decisions
        Phil Simborg -- Thursday, 8 February 2018, at 4:26 a.m.
        • ran.nfl wrote about Pederson and his play call decisions
          higonefive -- Friday, 9 February 2018, at 12:54 p.m.
          • ran.nfl wrote about Pederson and his play call decisions
            Bob Koca -- Friday, 9 February 2018, at 5:53 p.m.
          • ran.nfl wrote about Pederson and his play call decisions
            higonefive -- Saturday, 10 February 2018, at 8:39 a.m.
            • ran.nfl wrote about Pederson and his play call decisions
              Bob Koca -- Saturday, 10 February 2018, at 4:20 p.m.