Even though Casper took he nailed a key aspect of the position that we should notice. The spare on our three point that would normally be on our six point. Everyone notices it of course but I find most people don't really realize what changes like this mean. You can see below.
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| XGID=---Cb-C-CC--bB---c-bbb--bA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69.77% (G:29.73% B:0.29%) | 69.58% (G:32.13% B:0.45%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.23% (G:5.47% B:0.26%) | 30.42% (G:6.05% B:0.32%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.638 | +1.308 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.850 (-0.150) | ±0.014 (+0.836..+0.863) |
| Double/Take: | +1.078 (+0.078) | ±0.022 (+1.056..+1.100) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75628317 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 minute 40 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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| XGID=---Bb-D-CC--bB---c-bbb--bA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.54% (G:29.68% B:0.26%) | 68.41% (G:31.78% B:0.40%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.46% (G:5.80% B:0.31%) | 31.59% (G:6.46% B:0.37%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.609 | +1.243 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.811 (-0.185) | ±0.011 (+0.800..+0.822) |
| Double/Take: | +0.996 | ±0.016 (+0.981..+1.012) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.004) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 11048542 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 66.9% | |
| Duration: 4 minutes 00 second | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10