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6 Away - 10 Away Redouble --9 v11 Bearoff

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 16 February 2018, at 2:53 p.m.

In Response To: 6 Away - 10 Away Redouble --9 v11 Bearoff (Steven E. Carey)

The doubling window vs. an even opponent ATS is from ~ 86% to 92%. Experience has shown that the leader needs to be real close to the top to have a recube in this mid length race. I'd penalize White 3 pips for the 2 extra checkers and the 3rd checker on the deuce making the adjusted pip counts 31-42. Kleinman's formula gives the side on roll close to 90% in such a race. I don't think that's close enough to the top of the window so ND for me OTB.

I'd also use Seret's pipple count to estimate each sides EPC if I had enough time on my clock. Seret's formula gives about the same 11 pip lead by the way.

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