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Las Vegas Fish Chouette #13

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Saturday, 17 February 2018, at 10:01 a.m.

In Response To: Las Vegas Fish Chouette #13 (Stick)

We have few disastrous rolls right away. If we fail to escape, it will get pretty nasty if White rolls some of the aces. With other aces she can usually clear the bar blot. Even if we hit now, it's a long way to go to escape everybody, not roll a breaking anti-joker along the way, not get hit in the outfield after White makes the ace, or not get return hit after we attack White's ace pt blot when she tries to enter.

The take is obvious to me.

I think Blue is the leader, but I wouldn't give him more than 55-60% GWC here. Gammon chances are high for Blue, maybe like 1/2 wins, so about 30% and for White less than that since Blue will often stabilize if things go south and can get out of the gammon danger. I think I'd put White's gammons at no more than 1/3 of her wins, so maybe about 15%.

I briefly considered a beaver at first, but the numbers looks too good for Blue for an equity around .4 - .5, so far from it.

No redouble / the easiest take.

I wonder what would you do against a typical weak-ish player, say about 10 PR, who doesn't understand backgames (or deep vs deep positions) and passes way too soon. Try to exploit him by playing on, maybe doubling out after a hit? Or maybe try to get a pass right away?

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