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6 Away - 10 Away Redouble --9 v11 Bearoff

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Saturday, 17 February 2018, at 10:52 a.m.

In Response To: 6 Away - 10 Away Redouble --9 v11 Bearoff (Steven E. Carey)

If Blue had one less on the deuce pt and 3-4 checkers on the 6pt, it would be about 7,5 pips wastage. Here, without the 6pt, it's about 1 more, plus the 2nd guy on the deuce costs about 1 pip too. That's about 9.5 pips wastage, for the EPC count of 40.5.

Let's do the same for White. If she had only a single checker on the ace and deuce pts, she would waste about 7.5 pips. 1 more on the ace costs 2 pips and 2 more on the deuce cost 1 pip each. I arrive at 11.5 pips wastage for the EPC of 50.5.

I use my own method to convert to GWC. I'd categorize this position as flat vs flat. I know that in a flat vs flat position, being 10% EPC down (off-roll) gives about 18% GWC. Being 25% down gives 0.1 x leader's EPC + 7 GWC less, so 18% - (4% + 7%) = 7% GWC. Here, White is a hair ahead of a 25%-behind mark, so maybe she wins between 7% and 7.5%.

Seems too low to take this as trailer's take point is about 8%.

Redouble/pass.

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