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BGonline.org Forums
Fogerlund vs Nunez 2013 California State Finals
Posted By: Karol Szczerek In Response To: Fogerlund vs Nunez 2013 California State Finals (Steven E. Carey)
Date: Saturday, 17 February 2018, at 5:13 p.m.
After the hit Blue should win about 2/3 games.
What's the GWC after the safe play of 6/2 6/1?
Blue's pip count is 59. After that play, if he had only 2 on the ace point, he would waste about as much as in a reference position of 222333 (spares on the high points), which is 9.5 wastage. Here he has a gap, so maybe he'd waste 10 pips. But he has 2 more on the ace than that (4 instead of 2), which count as 2 additional pips each. So 59 direct pips + 14 pips wastage is 73 EPC.
If white had 1 checker on the ace and deuce instead of 3 on a deuce, she'd waste about 7.5 pips. Moving the ace guy to the deuce doesn't raise the wastage, but she has a third guy on the deuce, which counts as +1 pip wastage. So she wastes about 8.5 pips for a EPC of 87.5.
If White were 10% EPC behind, she'd be at about 23% GWC in this "something between pips vs pips and pips vs flat" position. If White were 25% EPC behind, she'd have about 15.3% less, so about 7.5% GWC. She's a bit closer to the 25%-behind mark, so she's certainly below 15% in a race.
The contact favours White, but it can't be worth too much. I'd guesstimate White is maybe between 20% and 25% GWC. This puts Blue at at least 75% GWC after the safe play, which is much higher than the "about 2/3" after the hit.
A clear 6/2 6/1 for me.
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