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It may not be a record, but ... and who is the luckiest backgammon player?...

Posted By: Terje Pedersen
Date: Friday, 23 February 2018, at 10:26 a.m.

In Response To: It may not be a record, but ... and the winner is!... (Christian Munk-Christensen)

Put a - in front of the number and switch the player name and you're done? :-)

What could be interesting is to sum up the luck value for each player and see if most average out to 0 in luck value or if some are consistently lucky/unlucky.

Some players (at least one in our club!) consistently sits there and keeps moaning about that they are the most unlucky backgammon player there is while playing a match. Odds are good they are not!... Perhaps that is an attempt to make the dice gods feel pity of them and give them some good luck?... or to annoy their opponent...

Here is a list of the average luck for players with 50 or more matches in the database:

Playeravg luckNum matches
Geert Van der Stricht1.021423076923152
Chris Rogers0.8197547169811353
Julian Fetterlein0.6967073170731782
Tobias Hellwag0.6886612903225862
Gaz Owen0.567703703703754
Bill Robertie0.5422419354838762
Nick Blasier0.50728571428571133
Thomas Tenland0.4935384615384691
Junichi Tanaka0.4512982456140457
Mads Peter Andersen0.4462692307692352
Lars Trabolt0.4445151515151566
Dagfinn Snarheim0.4020615384615465
Tsuyoshi Minakami0.3869610389610477
Carlo Melzi0.331044776119467
Thomas Myhr0.32439062564
Thomas Kristensen0.29959712230216139
Matt Cohn-Geier0.28641085271318129
Frank Raposa0.2663921568627551
Jacek Wojciechowski0.25110377358491106
Ed O'Laughlin0.24308270676692133
Michihito Kageyama0.22380694980695259
Tim Cross0.21925694444444144
Roberto Litzenberger0.2162093023255886
Karsten Bredahl0.2104047619047684
Zdenek Žižka0.207174603174663
Kit Woolsey0.1863974358974478
Falafel Natanzon0.16650434782609115
Dale Taylor0.1471940298507567
Steen Grřnbech0.05148313559322118
Frank Simon0.03735164835164891
Sebastian Wilkinson0.03216455696202579
Akiko Yazawa0.021610619469027113
Neil Kazaross0.02056122448979698
Masayuki Mochizuki-0.0083420724346076497
Kiyokazu Nishikawa-0.05312941176470685
Peter Bennet-0.06505555555555672
Michel Lamote-0.1919368421052695
Paul Weaver-0.19865
Victor Ashkenazi-0.21726785714286168
Malcolm Davis-0.2496666666666790
Lawrence Powell-0.2882794117647168
Masanori Ichikawa-0.2954794520547973
Stick-0.3092459016393461
Steve Sax-0.35919341563786243
Bob Wachtel-0.35958974358974117
Jon Barnes-0.3953571428571456
Petko Kostadinov-0.48651048951049143
Walter Meuwis-0.4936842105263257
Phil Simborg-0.5270121951219582
John O'Hagan-0.5475820895522467
Dmitriy Obukhov-0.74681132075472106
Ray Fogerlund-1.014452631578995
Freddie Noer-1.029164179104567
Paul Magriel-1.209708860759579

The more matches in the database the better this value gets. So how is Mochy doing with 497 matches?

Masayuki Mochizuki: -0.0083420724346076

Pretty close to 0 so the theory of luck averaging itself out over time may be on to something...

Speaking of luck: How much luck can your opponent have and you're still able to pull off a victory?

Which looks rather interesting! This must have been an interesting match! I have to play through that one and so can you... https://www.backgammonstudio.com/index.php?gotomenu=startmatch&argument=1074

Best regards,
TP

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