Looking at the probability distributions in the rollout data, I noticed that Blue wins more games after 22/16 6/1 than he wins after the other plays. Consequently, I rolled out the position not only at –8–3 but also at DMP.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 1
score: 8
pip: 96 | | 11 point match | pip: 104
score: 3
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--BBBBCB----a----bcdbcB---:1:1:1:65:3:8:0:11:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 22/16 6/1 | eq: -0.408 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.91% (G:1.80% B:0.09%)
77.09% (G:8.84% B:0.41%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.410...-0.405) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 20 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/1 6/1 | eq: -0.426 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.68% (G:0.54% B:0.01%)
77.32% (G:3.20% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.427...-0.424) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 7/2 7/1 | eq: -0.441 (-0.034) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.02% (G:0.58% B:0.02%)
77.98% (G:3.62% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.443...-0.440) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 22/11 | eq: -0.444 (-0.037) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 21.81% (G:1.16% B:0.03%)
78.19% (G:3.32% B:0.14%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.446...-0.442) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 22/16 7/2 | eq: -0.462 (-0.055) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 21.24% (G:1.52% B:0.05%)
78.76% (G:9.86% B:0.46%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.464...-0.460) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Trump
score: 0
pip: 96 | | 1 point match | pip: 104
score: 0
Blue is Putin |
|
| XGID=--BBBBCB----a----bcdbcB---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/1 6/1 | eq: -0.546 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.71% (G:0.39% B:0.00%)
77.29% (G:3.91% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.549...-0.542) - [100.0%]
Duration: 28.7 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/16 6/1 | eq: -0.560 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 21.99% (G:1.95% B:0.24%)
78.01% (G:7.27% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.565...-0.555) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36.6 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 22/11 | eq: -0.561 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 21.93% (G:0.89% B:0.02%)
78.07% (G:2.68% B:0.13%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.565...-0.557) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30.7 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 7/2 7/1 | eq: -0.563 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 21.84% (G:0.41% B:0.00%)
78.16% (G:4.47% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.567...-0.560) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25.7 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 22/16 7/2 | eq: -0.586 (-0.041) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 20.68% (G:1.31% B:0.04%)
79.32% (G:7.78% B:0.37%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.591...-0.582) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29.6 seconds |
|
| |
1 674 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 673 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2