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Late Game Cube Action? - ROLLOUTs

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Sunday, 25 February 2018, at 9:34 p.m.

In Response To: Late Game Cube Action? (Karol Szczerek)

OP is a close pass.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 46
Unlimited Game
pip: 32
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-----------------AbbbbdA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79,10% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 78,87% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20,90% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 21,13% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities +0,582 +1,155
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,863 (-0,137)±0,003 (+0,861..+0,866)
Redouble/Take:+1,048 (+0,048)±0,004 (+1,044..+1,053)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 5,9 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Making White 1 pip better makes it a close take.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 45
Unlimited Game
pip: 32
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B----------------A-bbbbdA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76,41% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 76,55% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23,59% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 23,45% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities +0,528 +1,062
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,811 (-0,141)±0,004 (+0,807..+0,815)
Redouble/Take:+0,952±0,005 (+0,947..+0,957)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,048)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 5,5 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

I've also tried a variant where I moved 2 checkers from Blue's 5pt to his 4pt. This makes his 10(!) rolls: [64, 54, 41, 51, 61] a lot better letting him take off 2 instead of one. Without contact, Blue gains only 0.7 effective pip with that change. Here, the gain is quite big and I had to move White's blot 2 pips even closer to compensate:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 43
Unlimited Game
pip: 30
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B--------------A----dbbdA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77,55% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 77,09% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22,45% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 22,91% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities +0,551 +1,084
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,810 (-0,168)±0,002 (+0,807..+0,812)
Redouble/Take:+0,978±0,004 (+0,974..+0,982)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,022)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 3,0 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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