Checker Play -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS

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Checker Play -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 25 February 2018, at 9:58 p.m.

In Response To: Checker Play (Stick)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 100

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--aB-BBBBAAAa-----cdbBbaa-:2:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1. Rollout¹ 9/4 5/4 eq: +0.4483
Player:
Opponent: 75.14% (G:12.19% B:0.52%)
24.86% (G:11.80% B:0.34%) Conf.: ą0.0071 (+0.4413...+0.4554) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 48 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 11/10 9/4 eq: +0.4057 (-0.0426)
Player:
Opponent: 72.72% (G:12.37% B:0.49%)
27.28% (G:10.22% B:0.19%) Conf.: ą0.0072 (+0.3985...+0.4129) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 59 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 11/6 9/8 eq: +0.4012 (-0.0472)
Player:
Opponent: 72.15% (G:12.02% B:0.51%)
27.85% (G:7.33% B:0.14%) Conf.: ą0.0063 (+0.3949...+0.4075) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 11/5 eq: +0.3753 (-0.0730)
Player:
Opponent: 71.35% (G:11.59% B:0.55%)
28.65% (G:8.13% B:0.21%) Conf.: ą0.0057 (+0.3696...+0.3811) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 42 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 11/6 10/9 eq: +0.3364 (-0.1119)
Player:
Opponent: 69.36% (G:11.22% B:0.39%)
30.64% (G:7.42% B:0.11%) Conf.: ą0.0060 (+0.3304...+0.3424) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 13 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 8/2* eq: -0.0056 (-0.4540)
Player:
Opponent: 57.05% (G:17.20% B:0.99%)
42.95% (G:20.97% B:1.35%) Conf.: ą0.0084 (-0.0141...+0.0028) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 04 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Ken's rollout of Stick's original position.
Switch-making the 4pt, threatening 28 covers, is easily best.
Below is a variant where White has her 8pt instead of her 7pt.
Here, where only 27 covers can be threatened, switch-making the 4pt is merely tied with Ken's natural-looking play of 11/10 9/4 and a third play is very close.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 103

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--aB-BBBBAAAa----c-dbBbaa-:2:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1 (White has her 8pt instead of her 7pt)

1. Rollout¹ 9/4 5/4 eq: +0.398
Player:
Opponent: 72.86% (G:12.46% B:0.54%)
27.14% (G:12.01% B:0.34%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.395...+0.401) - [98.6%]
Duration: 7 minutes 26 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 11/10 9/4 eq: +0.392 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent: 72.08% (G:12.98% B:0.53%)
27.92% (G:9.91% B:0.18%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.389...+0.396) - [1.4%]
Duration: 7 minutes 22 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 11/6 9/8 eq: +0.384 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent: 71.31% (G:12.35% B:0.48%)
28.69% (G:7.70% B:0.15%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.380...+0.387) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 04 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 11/5 eq: +0.358 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent: 70.83% (G:11.65% B:0.49%)
29.17% (G:8.59% B:0.24%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.355...+0.362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 54 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 10/4 eq: +0.336 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent: 70.58% (G:12.96% B:0.54%)
29.42% (G:12.47% B:0.37%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.333...+0.339) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 02 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 11/6 10/9 eq: +0.320 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent: 68.80% (G:11.88% B:0.38%)
31.20% (G:7.99% B:0.16%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.316...+0.323) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 42 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13974616
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Giving White back her 7pt, below is a variant where Blue's 21pt anchor is demoted to the 22pt.
Ken's play is again tied, despite White still having two inside blots.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 102

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 132
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--aB-BBBBAAAa-----cdbbBaa-:2:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2 (White's 3pt and Blue's 21pt have been swapped)

1. Rollout¹ 9/4 5/4 eq: +0.320
Player:
Opponent: 70.12% (G:12.13% B:0.53%)
29.88% (G:13.28% B:0.46%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.316...+0.323) - [66.1%]
Duration: 18 minutes 04 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 11/10 9/4 eq: +0.318 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent: 69.34% (G:12.72% B:0.53%)
30.66% (G:11.02% B:0.27%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.314...+0.323) - [33.9%]
Duration: 15 minutes 40 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 11/6 9/8 eq: +0.278 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent: 67.63% (G:12.20% B:0.48%)
32.37% (G:9.55% B:0.23%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.275...+0.281) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 14 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 11/5 eq: +0.278 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent: 68.05% (G:11.46% B:0.47%)
31.95% (G:10.32% B:0.30%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.274...+0.281) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 16 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 10/4 eq: +0.276 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent: 68.67% (G:12.13% B:0.50%)
31.33% (G:13.95% B:0.51%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.272...+0.280) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 00 second

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13974616
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

On the other hand, it is worth noting that if we combine the changes of Variant 1 (White has 8pt instead of 7pt) and Variant 2 (Blue's anchor is demoted to 22pt) into Variant 3 below, the correctness of switch-making the 4pt becomes bigger than ever. Much has to do with how big an anti-joker double 4s becomes when it neither cover nor escape. To wit:

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 105

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 132
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--aB-BBBBAAAa----c-dbbBaa-:2:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3 (White has her 8pt and Blue is demoted to 22pt)

1. Rollout¹ 9/4 5/4 eq: +0.337
Player:
Opponent: 70.64% (G:13.05% B:0.59%)
29.36% (G:13.08% B:0.47%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.333...+0.340) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 38 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 11/10 9/4 eq: +0.271 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent: 67.60% (G:12.67% B:0.52%)
32.40% (G:11.03% B:0.25%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.267...+0.275) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 07 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 10/4 eq: +0.269 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent: 68.42% (G:12.75% B:0.58%)
31.58% (G:13.54% B:0.48%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.266...+0.273) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 13 seconds
4. Rollout² 11/5 eq: +0.245 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent: 66.77% (G:11.81% B:0.57%)
33.23% (G:10.36% B:0.29%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (+0.237...+0.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds
5. Rollout² 11/6 9/8 eq: +0.241 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent: 66.39% (G:11.85% B:0.50%)
33.61% (G:9.31% B:0.20%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (+0.235...+0.248) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 14 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13974616
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13974616
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Finally, let's return to the original position but give White a second checker back. Now switch-making the 4pt is a pathetic triple-blunder (according to XGR++): see the variant below.
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--bB-BBBBAAAa-----ccbBbaa-:2:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4 (One of White's 6pt spares is back on the 23pt)

1. XG Roller++ 11/6 9/8 eq: +0.640
Player:
Opponent: 79.33% (G:15.34% B:0.62%)
20.67% (G:3.20% B:0.08%)
2. XG Roller++ 11/6 10/9 eq: +0.623 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent: 78.83% (G:15.09% B:0.51%)
21.17% (G:3.43% B:0.06%)
3. XG Roller++ 10/5 9/8 eq: +0.609 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent: 78.16% (G:15.37% B:0.54%)
21.84% (G:3.59% B:0.08%)
4. XG Roller++ 11/5 eq: +0.595 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent: 77.47% (G:16.40% B:0.84%)
22.53% (G:4.60% B:0.15%)
5. XG Roller++ 11/10 9/4 eq: +0.577 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent: 76.88% (G:16.57% B:0.68%)
23.12% (G:5.11% B:0.10%)
6. XG Roller++ 21/16 10/9 eq: +0.537 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent: 75.65% (G:17.15% B:0.83%)
24.35% (G:6.80% B:0.18%)
7. XG Roller++ 21/16 11/10 eq: +0.530 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent: 74.70% (G:20.45% B:1.26%)
25.30% (G:8.82% B:0.26%)
8. XG Roller++ 9/3 eq: +0.518 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent: 74.22% (G:17.05% B:0.76%)
25.78% (G:5.32% B:0.15%)
9. XG Roller++ 10/4 eq: +0.495 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent: 74.75% (G:16.20% B:0.70%)
25.25% (G:7.63% B:0.19%)
10. XG Roller++ 9/4 5/4 eq: +0.460 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent: 74.36% (G:15.14% B:0.68%)
25.64% (G:8.62% B:0.32%)

Messages In This Thread

Checker Play
Stick -- Tuesday, 20 February 2018, at 10:50 a.m.
- Checker Play
  Mike Clapsadle -- Tuesday, 20 February 2018, at 4:29 p.m.
- Checker Play
  John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 20 February 2018, at 4:33 p.m.
  - Checker Play
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 February 2018, at 11:43 p.m.
- Checker Play
  ah_clem -- Wednesday, 21 February 2018, at 3:17 p.m.
- Checker Play
  hominid -- Thursday, 22 February 2018, at 2:21 p.m.
  - Checker Play
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 22 February 2018, at 4:16 p.m.
    - Checker Play
      TarHeelFan -- Thursday, 22 February 2018, at 4:45 p.m.
    - Checker Play
      hominid -- Thursday, 22 February 2018, at 9:03 p.m.
      - Checker Play
        neilkaz -- Friday, 23 February 2018, at 4:05 p.m.
- Rollout
  KenB -- Saturday, 24 February 2018, at 5:18 p.m.
  - Rollout with no blots
    KenB -- Saturday, 24 February 2018, at 5:21 p.m.
- Checker Play -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
  Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 25 February 2018, at 9:58 p.m.

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