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Cube action after the hit in a holding game. - Rollouts

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Tuesday, 27 February 2018, at 8:50 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action after the hit in a holding game. (Karol Szczerek)

Original position is a pass, indeed.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 93
Unlimited Game
pip: 125
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B-BbBBB-B--B-a---bbcb-cA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69,29% (G:33,19% B:0,25%) 69,55% (G:33,01% B:0,26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30,71% (G:5,36% B:0,22%) 30,45% (G:5,47% B:0,26%)
Cubeless Equities +0,664 +1,333
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,830 (-0,170)±0,010 (+0,821..+0,840)
Redouble/Take:+1,089 (+0,089)±0,014 (+1,075..+1,104)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 7 minutes 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

A small change of switching Blue's 2pt to 3pt makes it a sound take.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 93
Unlimited Game
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBbBBB-B--B-a---bbcb-cA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65,77% (G:31,73% B:0,19%) 65,84% (G:32,00% B:0,20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34,23% (G:6,11% B:0,32%) 34,16% (G:6,13% B:0,32%)
Cubeless Equities +0,570 +1,149
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,708 (-0,187)±0,009 (+0,699..+0,717)
Redouble/Take:+0,895±0,014 (+0,881..+0,909)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,105)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 8 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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