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Tough 4-cube at 5a-5a. Should I stay or should I go?

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Monday, 5 March 2018, at 5:27 p.m.

In Response To: Tough 4-cube at 5a-5a. Should I stay or should I go? (higonefive)

The pip count looks funny. I assume checker colours are swapped by mistake and the doubling side is the bottom player ("Blue" after the swap). Let BP = bottom player and TP = top player.

BP's good numbers are 1s and 6s. I suppose 6s give TP about 25% wins on average (those which hit give maybe 20% and the other ones maybe 30%). I suppose 1s give TP about 35% on average. I'd settle for about 30% on average for those 20 rolls. For the other rolls I'd give TP maybe 15% more, so about 45% on average. That sums up to about 37%. BP wins a lot of gammons, maybe 1/2 of his wins or even more while TP wins not much, maybe 1/5-1/6 of his wins.

So I'd put BP on 63%/30% (wins/gammons) while TP on 37%/6%.

For money these numbers would give BP an equity of ca. 0.800 after a double, which is typically a sound cube in this type of prime vs prime position with high volatility.

Since AtS the gammons are down in value from usual 0.5 to under 0.25, I think it might be too early to double here.

No redouble/take.

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