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Las Vegas Fish Chouette #18

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Thursday, 8 March 2018, at 5:18 p.m.

In Response To: Las Vegas Fish Chouette #18 (Stick)

I count 28 covers. Some of them might not loose the market (take [64] for example), but for a double decision, I'd quickly assume at least 2/3 of them do, so a sure redouble.

Now the take decision. A bit harder to estimate.

What's Blue's GWC?

66, 55, 65 are killers. That's 4 rolls. I'd call them 95% GWC. That's 3.8/36 games.

The other 24 covers yield maybe between 65% (my guess for the worst ones like [64] or [33]) and 80% (my guess for good ones like [41 or 32]), so let's call it 72.5% on average. This gives me about 17.4 games. Sum it up with the above for 21.2 games.

The last 8 rolls, which are [21, 11, 31, 43 and 44] yield maybe between 65% and 50% for an average of 57.5%. This gives me 4.6 games.

I arrive at 25.8 games for GWC of just under 72%.

I'd guess Blue doesn't win more than 1/3 as gammons, so maybe 20% chance. White's gammons must be low, let's say 1/5 - 1/6 of wins, so about 5%.

These numbers give me an eq of about .97 after RD/T.
(.72 - .28 for single wins is .44; gammons is .2 - .05 = .15 addition, so together it's .59, now x2 because we double, so 1.18, and minus typical cube vig of .2)

A close take for me.

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