When I have two positions that are nearly identical with one small difference I never know which one to post to trip people up. Here for example in the original posted most people thought it might be close, which I guess is a fare statement given the results.
But look at the second position ... I can't think for one second anyone's analysis would have been different if I'd have posted it and all of a sudden it's a monster blunder to take.
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| XGID=-B-bBCCB-----B---aabbbbabA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 72.53% (G:22.77% B:0.06%) | 72.48% (G:22.69% B:0.06%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 27.47% (G:5.40% B:0.16%) | 27.52% (G:5.75% B:0.18%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.623 | +1.236 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.836 (-0.164) | ±0.003 (+0.833..+0.838) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.000 | ±0.004 (+0.996..+1.004) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.000) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 73663725 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 50.3% | |
| Duration: 9 minutes 49 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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| XGID=-B-bBCCB------B--aabbbbabA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 73.92% (G:27.26% B:0.08%) | 74.20% (G:27.30% B:0.08%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 26.08% (G:5.07% B:0.12%) | 25.80% (G:5.15% B:0.15%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.700 | +1.410 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.920 (-0.080) | |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.204 (+0.204) | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10