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31P-33B-51 -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 10 March 2018, at 8:49 a.m.

In Response To: Las Vegas Fish Chouette #19 (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 155 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bBD-B---cE-b-c-e----B-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Opponent owns 10pt (31P-33B-51)

1.	Rollout1	24/18	eq: -0.135
	Player: Opponent: 47.14% (G:8.97% B:0.36%) 52.86% (G:13.00% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.141...-0.128) - [100.0%] Duration: 42 minutes 09 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/23 13/8	eq: -0.174 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 46.01% (G:9.35% B:0.35%) 53.99% (G:13.32% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.182...-0.167) - [0.0%] Duration: 40 minutes 00 second
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 40252035 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Here is the original post from 2010, in which (several examples of) going to the 18pt is an option against either a ONE-checker 10pt or one-checker 11pt.

In the current post (see rollouts above and below), going to the 18pt is an option against either the opponent's TWO-checker 10pt or two-checker 11pt.

Here is a post from a few months ago in which going to the 18pt is an option against either a THREE-checker 10pt or three-checker 11pt.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 157 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bBD-B---cEb--c-e----B-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Opponent owns 11pt (32S-31P-32S-51)

1.	Rollout1	24/23 13/8	eq: -0.120
	Player: Opponent: 47.39% (G:10.10% B:0.37%) 52.61% (G:13.00% B:0.44%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.130...-0.110) - [98.6%] Duration: 45.1 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/18	eq: -0.136 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 47.24% (G:9.19% B:0.39%) 52.76% (G:13.52% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.145...-0.126) - [1.4%] Duration: 47.3 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 55188996 Moves and cube decisions: 1-ply

Relative equity margins involving opponent's occupation of the 9pt fall between those of the 11pt and 10pt, though (more often than not) closer to the 10pt. The position below is a case in point.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bBD-B---cE--bc-e----B-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Opponent owns 9pt (43Z-31P-43Z-51)

1.	Rollout1	24/18	eq: -0.202
	Player: Opponent: 45.37% (G:8.50% B:0.34%) 54.63% (G:13.76% B:0.42%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.209...-0.195) - [100.0%] Duration: 55 minutes 30 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/23 13/8	eq: -0.228 (-0.026)
	Player: Opponent: 45.04% (G:8.73% B:0.34%) 54.96% (G:14.61% B:0.47%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.236...-0.220) - [0.0%] Duration: 51 minutes 40 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 55188996 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Las Vegas Fish Chouette #19
  Stick -- Thursday, 8 March 2018, at 4:05 p.m.
  • Las Vegas Fish Chouette #19
    Karol Szczerek -- Thursday, 8 March 2018, at 5:31 p.m.
    • Las Vegas Fish Chouette #19
      Igor -- Friday, 9 March 2018, at 2:23 p.m.
  • Las Vegas Fish Chouette #19
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 8 March 2018, at 9:27 p.m.
  • Las Vegas Fish Chouette #19
    Joseph Pregler -- Friday, 9 March 2018, at 2:50 a.m.
  • Las Vegas Fish Chouette #19
    neilkaz -- Friday, 9 March 2018, at 6:16 p.m.
  • 31P-33B-51 -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
    Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 10 March 2018, at 8:49 a.m.
    • 31P-33B-51 -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
      Stick -- Saturday, 10 March 2018, at 6:35 p.m.