Dear reader, below I post some hints for solving the original position, so if you still want to quiz yourself, don't scroll down.
In search of answers I've constructed 3 positions which are similar in win/gamm ratios for the leader but they vary in terms of bg chances. In the first one, which is a slightly modified original position, bgs are so high it's incorrect to redouble even though the eq is close to 1. In the second one the bg chance is lower and it's correct to redouble now, although it's not a big gain in eq. In the third one there are no bgs and it's a whopper not to redouble. Turns out the bgs factor looks like the most important one. By redoubling we kill all our bgs.
       
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 162 | | 8 point match | pip: 52
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--B-BBC------a--AAAcd--BbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:8:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 61,84% (G:45,65% B:8,96%) | 61,12% (G:44,92% B:11,19%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 38,16% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 38,88% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,844 | +1,451 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0,914 | |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,855 (-0,059) | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,086) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 28,9% |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
    
   
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 151 | | 8 point match | pip: 132
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---aaBBABBAAbB-aab-cAAbb--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:8:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 60,97% (G:43,89% B:7,40%) | 60,97% (G:43,92% B:7,10%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 39,03% (G:9,38% B:0,59%) | 39,03% (G:9,49% B:0,58%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,679 | +1,216 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0,784 (-0,064) | |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,848 | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,152) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 150 | | 8 point match | pip: 51
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-DDBCA-aa---cb--Abbbb-----:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:8:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 61,90% (G:45,95% B:0,01%) | 61,89% (G:46,97% B:0,01%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 38,10% (G:2,77% B:0,05%) | 38,11% (G:2,68% B:0,05%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,718 | +1,470 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0,755 (-0,152) | |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,907 | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,093) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2