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Understanding the score - RO

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Sunday, 11 March 2018, at 4:03 p.m.

In Response To: Understanding the score (Karol Szczerek)

Redoubling kills our backgammons while there are only several market loosers. A big mistake at the score.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 8 point match pip: 55 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B-BBC-----aA---AAdc--BcA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:8:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	56,47% (G:42,81% B:8,46%)	56,39% (G:43,45% B:21,25%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43,53% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)	43,61% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,700	+1,219
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0,731	±0,017 (+0,714..+0,748)
Redouble/Take:	+0,501 (-0,229)	±0,032 (+0,470..+0,533)
Redouble/Pass:	+1,000 (+0,269)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 31,5%
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ Search interval: Gigantic
Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

For money, it's a big take and only a small double at best.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 Unlimited Game pip: 55 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B-BBC-----aA---AAdc--BcA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	56,59% (G:42,85% B:5,75%)	56,53% (G:42,94% B:6,12%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43,41% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)	43,47% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,618	+1,242
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0,815 (-0,015)	±0,013 (+0,802..+0,829)
Redouble/Take:	+0,830	±0,020 (+0,810..+0,850)
Redouble/Pass:	+1,000 (+0,170)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ Search interval: Gigantic
Double Decision confidence:		89,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 2 hours 51 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Understanding the score
  Karol Szczerek -- Friday, 9 March 2018, at 4:22 p.m.
  • Understanding the score
    neilkaz -- Friday, 9 March 2018, at 4:43 p.m.
    • Understanding the score
      John O'Hagan -- Friday, 9 March 2018, at 6:41 p.m.
      • Understanding the score
        Karol Szczerek -- Friday, 9 March 2018, at 8:15 p.m.
        • Understanding the score
          Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 9 March 2018, at 8:51 p.m.
        • Understanding the score
          John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 10 March 2018, at 12:06 a.m.
          • Understanding the score
            Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 10 March 2018, at 8:43 a.m.
            • Understanding the score
              Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 10 March 2018, at 9:19 a.m.
              • Understanding the score
                Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 10 March 2018, at 10:53 a.m.
          • Understanding the score *SPOILER*
            Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 10 March 2018, at 9:45 a.m.
  • Understanding the score - RO
    Karol Szczerek -- Sunday, 11 March 2018, at 4:03 p.m.