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BGonline.org Forums
8 position from Chou video
Posted By: Stick In Response To: 8 position from Chou video (Phil Simborg)
Date: Monday, 12 March 2018, at 7:16 p.m.
- - The shorter the race is, the more likely your racing formula is to break down. When forced to use something I prefer EPC or, common sense. Common sense being trying to figure out how many rolls v. how many rolls it is and go from there. From a common sense standpoint it seems like a 5 roll v. 5 roll and we know that is not a RD. A pure 5 roll v. 5 roll is barely not yet a redouble so some trashy 5 roll v. 5 roll is clearly not a cube.
- - PRaT sucks, don't use it, don't mention it, let it be part of history. When Steve is discussing market losers [sic] he isn't considering the sequence. I know he knows but he is focusing solely on the on roll player's roll. He goes through and says for example this hitting number or that hitting number isn't a market loser. Well, it can be depending on how poorly the opponent enters. That's part of the problem with the position, the opponent doesn't have spare checkers to play other than the checker currently in the outfield or, if it's missed, breaking the midpoint cleanly. If he is forced to break the midpoint by blotting potentially having a sixth man sent behind the prime that is bad mmmkay.
A rollout confirms the rollout stays borderline shading towards a ND.
- - I'm not sure what the average amount of rolls to escape needing both number X and Y has to do with anything since that can never happen here. He has to move and all his big numbers (fives & sixes) will be horrible.
While you guys tried to break down the this and the that of the rolls post mortem you still didn't get it I feel like. It's the gammons lost that force the best play to be the best play. Not noticing this detail is a blunder.
Side bar: XGR++ is a rollout. Variance Reduction Rollout truncated at 7 ply using 2-ply and 3-ply You can say it's not a full rollout (being truncated) and be accurate but it is a rollout as is XGR and XGR+.
- We sometimes get hung up on 'being outboarded'. While it is normally a bad thing, sometimes we can be outboarded but still have the better offensive position. In this position, while the player being doubled is outboarded, it is very hard for our opponent to ever completely shut us out/win the game whereas if along the way we hit a shot it is very easy to conceive of our offensive position turning into a game winner very shortly after because it also has priming ability.
The variant that Steve proposed, rolling a seven [43 52] and turning the corner by playing 18/11 followed by the opponent fanning does not lose the market. It is still a very clear take. The same holds true if we roll an eight. The idea that [44] wouldn't lose the market though shows that Steve likes his alcohol.
- Automatic. I have 6pt holding game references ;)
- Very few return shots with the correct play. The duplication includes not only sixes and three but twos also. If the opponent owned the cube making the 3pt would be much closer.
If we made the way too loose double hitting play and the opponent entered with a deuce there is no way we're TG.
- "Not going to get gammoned that much" - We get gammoned over 30% of the time!
There are 16 numbers that make the 5pt., not 15. What you/how you said it doesn't work.
- The rollout has this as a clear ND. (~.060) In a regular chouette this is a clear cube. The XG figure for a ND by ~.060 is 9% passes needed and will certainly be achieved in your run of the mill chou.
You will notice if you follow along with what I wrote some of what I said is covered in the video. I watch the video and comment in real time and don't see a reason (I'm lazy) to undo what I've already typed. So it's good they covered some of what I noted anyway.
Stick
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