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Las Vegas Fish Chouette #21 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 13 March 2018, at 9:00 p.m.

In Response To: Las Vegas Fish Chouette #21 (Stick)

I think this is another must double in a chouette cube even though it's a fairly large ND. We still have a lot of work to do with four back v. a 3 point board + bar point made. Twos and threes don't grow on trees! Seuss would be proud.

If the opp's 8pt was made instead of his 7pt it would be a monster cube.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
Unlimited Game
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bB-BBaBA-A--dA----bbbA-bC-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.17% (G:36.77% B:1.29%) 57.39% (G:37.25% B:1.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.83% (G:13.64% B:1.07%) 42.61% (G:13.88% B:1.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.377 +0.764
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.476±0.017 (+0.459..+0.492)
Double/Take:+0.424 (-0.051)±0.026 (+0.398..+0.451)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.524)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52138310
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 09 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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