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Fair handicap question

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Friday, 16 March 2018, at 9:33 p.m.

In Response To: Fair handicap question (Stick)

I wasn't defending the 55%, as I said it was off the top of my head and it was way off. What I was debating was your statement that the spot was only worth a 3% increase in winning chances for the weaker player. I agree, the -3 PR player definitely has the edge. The opening roll is about worth ~ .06 in a money game and the stronger player wins about 52.88% of DMP games. .5288-.4712=.0576 edge per game. The -.06(opening roll)spot at money would seem to translate pretty smoothly to match play, but the +.0576 edge per DMP game of the better play would need to be increased because the average game in a 7-point match is worth more than 1 point. I agree the stronger player has the edge, but I doubt your figure of 55% is accurate and feel confident the spot is worth more than a 3% increase in match winning chances.

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