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Las Vegas Fish Chouette #23 - Rollout + Variant

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 16 March 2018, at 11:24 p.m.

In Response To: Las Vegas Fish Chouette #23 (Stick)

A lot of people have learned that you redouble this type of position when you have 4 fewer men off (or less) than your opponent therefore they start thinking if 4 off is a redouble then if they have 3 less off that must be a pass. It could be true, it could be way off, it depends on the composition of the position as this problem demonstrates.

With the open 4pt as we have here the on roll player bears off so slowly due to this gap. Shot leaving numbers are always a plus too for the player taking/passing even if it's only a couple. Look at the variant below with the same numbers of checkers off but the gap is sealed. Massive pass.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 34
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 35
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aCBB-BB----------------be-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 74.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 25.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.489 +0.977
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.769 (-0.059)±0.005 (+0.764..+0.774)
Redouble/Take:+0.828±0.008 (+0.820..+0.836)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.172)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86251527
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3.0 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 34
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 31
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aCBBBB-----------------be-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 85.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 85.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 14.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 14.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.711 +1.427
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.922 (-0.078)
Redouble/Take:+1.342 (+0.342)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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