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Standard -4 -2 Cube?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 22 March 2018, at 9:49 p.m.

In Response To: Standard -4 -2 Cube? (Neil Robins)

Leader's tp ats is 20% + 100% of trailer's g's. I'd guess Blue's g chances are in the 4%-5% range so White needs ~25% to take. White obviously wins way more than this so it's a huge take. Should Blue double? The trailer usually has a cube when the leader is 2a if he has 3 or 4 market losers out of 36 and if his winning chances are within 8% of the leader's tp. Does Blue have 3 or 4 market losers and is he within 8% of an efficient cube? I think the answers are no and no. The only sequences that might lose the market are D2 or D5 followed by a non or poor entering numbers. That's only about 1 market loser which is well short of 3 or 4 out of 36. 67% would be within 8% of an efficient cube and there's no way Blue wins this often.

White g chances are an incentive for Blue to turn the cube since a g loss will lose the match regardless if the cubes been turned or not. I don't think this is enough of a factor to make the double correct though. ND/T.

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